Results of assembly by-elections held in two states, 40-seat assembly by-elections in 15 states and two-seat Lok Sabha by-elections were released on Saturday. In a way, this is the result that reflects the mood of half of the population of India after the Lok Sabha elections, where from the morning they began to talk about storm, storm and tsunami. Because the largest state among them is Maharashtra, where Mahavijay took place. The BJP alone won more than twice as many seats as the entire opposition. No one from the MVA component even got the seat to become opposition leader in Maharashtra. And in the political history of fifty years, the biggest victory has been achieved by any alliance in Maharashtra.
In fact, after the victory in Haryana 46 days ago, the Prime Minister stated from the BJP headquarters that the echo of the mandate would reach everywhere. In 46 days, a new echo of the historic mandate was heard from Maharashtra in such a way that everyone had to say that this is a great victory for the name, slogans and policies of Narendra Modi. At the same time, even as the NDA formed the government for the third time in the Lok Sabha elections, it continued to create a narrative that the opposition had broken the prime minister’s trust by winning more seats in some states.
Then, first, the historic victory of the BJP in the Haryana elections and the continued defeat of the Congress and now the victory of the BJP for the third consecutive time in Maharashtra and the defeat of the opposition for the third consecutive time have shown that the opposition is trying to Destroying the politics of BJP’s performance and trust in the minds of people has been difficult.
Firstly, if we talk only about Maharashtra, in 2014 it was 27.8% and 122 seats. 25.8% and 105 seats in 2019. More than 26% of the votes and more than 130 seats in 2024. The BJP is the only party to have won more than 100 seats in Maharashtra in the last three consecutive legislative elections and has won more than 25 percent of the votes. This means that in multi-party elections, one in every four votes goes to the BJP. This time BJP’s strike rate is more than 88% i.e. the party has won 131 seats after contesting 149 seats. In Haryana, the BJP defeated the Congress in a direct contest and in Maharashtra, in the contest between the BJP alliance and the Congress, the BJP won all the elections on its own. This means that the Congress can take on the BJP on its own and not on the basis of an alliance.
Why is it called Mahavijay?
The politics behind the Maharashtra election results will be understood more deeply because in Maharashtra, where the BJP was ahead with 79 seats during the Lok Sabha elections 5-6 months ago, it has now won 132 seats. Not only has the BJP made a great comeback, but its allies have also become stronger. Shinde Shiv Sena has won 57 seats. Ajit Pawar’s NCP won 41 seats. This means that in NDA there has been development with the support of everyone.
Look at the condition of the opposing alliance. The Congress has won only 16 seats. While Sharad Pawar’s NCP was limited to only 10 seats. Uddhav’s party could also win only 20 seats. In such a situation, the question arises whether the victory of the opposition alliance in the Lok Sabha was not an arrow but a fluke. What the BJP misled with a false narrative, it qualifies as a victory for its opponents.
This slogan of “If there is one, we are safe” is now considered important in Maharashtra because during the Lok Sabha elections, with the Constitution in hand, a narrative has been created that on caste-based issues such as enumeration of castes, reservations will be given to backward classes, BJP will end reservation. The NDA suffered losses. But now Modi’s slogan in the assembly elections is “Ek hain toh safe hain”. Understand this from statistics. In the Lok Sabha elections, the NDA’s upper caste vote declined by 29 per cent compared to 2019. The Maratha vote had declined by 11 per cent. The OBC vote decreased the most, by 31 per cent. The tribal vote had decreased by 3 percent.
BJP also did wonders in UP by-elections
In Maharashtra he is not called Mahavijay just because the BJP alliance has won a record number of seats. Rather, it is a big victory because even in the by-elections of 48 seats in 15 states, public confidence is more in the BJP and its alliance than in the opposition. While the Congress had 13 seats before the by-elections, it could save only seven. The Congress alliance could only win 20 of 29 seats in the by-elections. There is UP history in it too. The BJP won the Uttar Pradesh by-elections in those seats where the BJP had never won for three decades. The BJP has won 10 seats in the by-elections. While the BJP alliance has won 9 seats.
The NDA did wonders in the country’s 50-seat by-elections.
The BJP has made huge gains in the by-elections held in 48 assembly seats in 15 states of the country. Before the by-elections, the BJP had only 11 of these seats, but now the BJP’s number has reached 20. While the NDA won 28 of 48 seats. The BJP and its allies dominated in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan, while the Trinamool Congress swept West Bengal. The Congress won seven seats. In UP, the SP could win only two seats: Sisamau and Karhal.
After the big victory in Maharashtra, now only one question remains. Who is the Chief Minister? After the victory, Devendra Fadnavis wrote: “The true flight of the eagle is yet to come.” Now everyone wants to know if that flight will take him to the post of Chief Minister. Or are there any surprises left in 2022, just as Eknath Shinde’s name surprised everyone? Fadnavis’ mother said that her son will become CM. Eknath Shinde’s son Shrikant also says that his father will become CM. On the other hand, Ajit Pawar’s wife said that her husband will become CM. So father, husband or son… who will be the Chief Minister of Maharashtra?
In Maharashtra, will Fadnavis be able to return to the Chief Minister’s residence until Varsha after distributing seats as a political leader? Devendra Fadnavis will never forget the date of November 23 five years ago. When Fadnavis suddenly took oath as Chief Minister at Raj Bhavan in the morning with the support of Ajit Pawar. But Fadnavis had to say goodbye to that government that lasted 80 hours. Then he said: “I am the sea and I will return.”
After 34 years, one party won more than 130 seats
Devendra Fadnavis has returned with a landslide victory. Where after 34 years, if any party is winning more than 130 seats in Maharashtra, it is the BJP. The NDA has won eight out of ten seats in Maharashtra. That victory was achieved in Maharashtra, where the NDA’s average strike rate is 80%. But is the Chief Minister’s post safe this time for Devendra Fadnavis, who declared victory on the basis of Modi hai to mumkin hai?
Fadnavis could do what even Sharad Pawar could never do in Maharashtra politics. Fadnavis is the leader of Maharashtra and is the second leader after Vasant Rao Naik to hold the CM post continuously for five years. But after being Chief Minister from 2014 to 2019, when BJP-Shiv Sena won majority in 2019, due to Uddhav’s split, CM Fadnavis could only stay there for 80 hours. When the government was formed in June 2022 after Shinde’s split from the Shiv Sena, Fadnavis had to become deputy CM.
Will Fadnavis become Chief Minister?
Will Devendra Fadnavis now be able to return to the post of Chief Minister? This is a great question. After BJP wins 132 seats on its own, can there be any hurdle for Fadnavis to become CM? He asks because when asked if the largest party will be the Chief Minister. Current CM Eknath Shinde’s response made headlines. Shinde said there is no such consensus that the Chief Minister will be from the largest party, all three parties will decide together.
Eknath Shinde, who is playing the role of victory, remains the Chief Minister. It is said that Ladki Bahin’s plan is important for victory. The name of this scheme has been Mukhyamantri Ladki Bahin Yojana. Shinde’s party has nine deputies. Who support the BJP in the center. So even if Shinde gets less seats, but if he is united in the alliance, can he be the CM in future too? The question is why Nitish Kumar has also become Chief Minister by winning fewer seats than the BJP. So, will Eknath Shinde be the Chief Minister again or like the last time Fadnavis had to move from the post of CM to Deputy CM, this time Shinde will have to come? This question still remains.
Hemant Soren remains in power in Jharkhand
Talking about the Jharkhand Assembly election results, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, led by INDIA block, performed tremendously and secured majority. In Jharkhand, India Block won 56 seats, while the NDA won 24 seats. Jharkhand has broken the 24-year tradition and the ruling party has come back with a bang. Until now, the people of Jharkhand have been changing governments every five years and the new party has a chance to form the government.
