The noise of assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand stopped with the voting. After the vote, it is time for the recount. The counting of votes will take place on November 23 and the election results will be announced, but before that, political parties are busy assessing their prospects by holding review meetings on the assembly voting pattern. Exit poll projections have predicted the formation of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition government in the states of Maharashtra and Jharkhand, but there is also talk about the voting pattern.
29-year record broken in Maharashtra
According to data available till late night, more than 65 per cent of the voting took place in Maharashtra. This voting figure in Maharashtra is the highest in any assembly or Lok Sabha election since 1995. In the 1995 Maharashtra elections, there were 71.7 per cent votes, but after that, whether it was Assembly elections or Lok Sabha elections, the turnout of 70 people could never even reach the figure of 65. Talking about the last assembly elections in 2019, there was 61.4 per cent voting in the state. The voting percentage was 60.9 in the year 1999, 63.4 in the year 2004, 59.6 in the year 2009, 63.3 in the 2014 assembly elections and 61.4 percent in 2019.
Talking about the Lok Sabha elections, in the recent Lok Sabha elections, 61.5 per cent of the voting took place in the seats of Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, 52.4 per cent of voters cast their votes in the 1996 general elections, 57.1 per cent in 1998 and 61 per cent in 1999. There were 54.3 per cent votes in the year 2004, 50.5 percent in the 2009 general elections and 60.4 percent votes in the Lok Sabha seats of Maharashtra in 2014.
High participation also in Jharkhand
Talking about Jharkhand, voting was held in two phases in 81 assembly seats of the state. In the first phase, 66.65 percent of the 43 assembly seats were voted, 2.9 percent more than in the last elections held in 2019. According to data available until late at night, in 38 seats in the second phase have been voted more than 68 percent. In the last legislative elections, 66.9 percent voted for these seats. Jamtara topped the seat voting in the second phase of Jharkhand elections. According to available data, more than 77 percent of the voting took place in Jamtara.
What is the indication of Maharashtra voting pattern?
Be it assembly elections or Lok Sabha elections, high turnout is considered a sign of change. This time high participation has been observed from Maharashtra to Jharkhand. However, ruling parties often retain power despite high turnout. Many factors intervene behind this and experts also estimate a margin of error of up to three percent, that is, if the percentage of votes increases by three percent, it is not necessary that the voters have voted in favor of the change. Maharashtra’s electoral past from 1999 to 2019 also says the same.
Except in the 2004 elections, whenever turnout increased, there was a change of government in Maharashtra. Despite the increase in turnout in 2004, the ruling coalition again formed a government. At that time the increase in participation was less than three percent, which is within the margin of error. In the 1999 elections, the Congress emerged as the largest party and formed the government in alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by Sharad Pawar. In 2004, turnout increased by 2.5 percent compared to the previous elections, but the coalition managed to retain power.
In 2009, turnout declined by about four percent and a Congress-NCP government was formed, but in 2014, turnout increased by 3.7 percent and a BJP-Shiv Sena government was formed. In 2019, there was a drop of around two percent in favor of the ruling coalition. This time the turnout in the Maharashtra elections is about four per cent more than the previous elections. In such a situation, one has to see whether the trend of power shift continues as participation increases or whether it breaks this time.
Why was Maharashtra’s voting pattern surprising?
Maharashtra’s voting pattern is surprising because projections of exit poll results are contrary to the trend. The exit poll results for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections have predicted victory for the BJP-led alliance in both states. Talking about Maharashtra, the ruling Mahayuti is estimated to get 150-170 seats in the MATRIZE exit poll, 152-160 seats in the Chanakya Strategies exit poll and 159 seats in the Chanakya Strategies exit poll. JVC urn. In these three exit polls, the opposition Mahavikas Aghadi is expected to win 110 to 130, 130 to 138 and 116 seats respectively.
What a surprise in Jharkhand?
Talking about Jharkhand, however unstable the state’s image is politically, it is equally surprising in terms of electoral trends. Here, whether the vote percentage increases or decreases, the power changes. The trend of the last elections demonstrates this. The 2019 assembly elections are the best example of this, when turnout was lower, albeit marginal, compared to the previous elections, but there was a shift in power.
Also Read: Whose government in Maharashtra-Jharkhand, who will win in UP by-elections? What are exit polls called?
In the 2014 elections, there was 66.6 per cent votes and the BJP came to power. In 2019, the participation rate decreased by two percent, to 66.4 percent. It is usually the case that declining turnout favors the ruling party, but in Jharkhand the results were contrary to the trend. So the BJP was out of power.
Also Read: Voting ends for Maharashtra, Jharkhand and by-elections, know where and how many votes were held
This time there were about two percent more votes in both phases. According to the trend, this cannot be said either for or against the government. Only the electoral results will tell what surprises a participation within the margin of error will bring. However, exit poll projections have predicted a victory for the BJP-led NDA.
Also Read: Exit poll in Jharkhand: Who owns the government in Jharkhand? Know who is winning the political battle in the exit polls
The NDA is estimated to win 42-47 seats in the MATRIZE exit poll, 45-50 seats in the CHANAKYA STRATEGIES exit poll and 40-44 seats in the CHANAKYA STRATEGIES exit poll. JVC. In these exit polls, the ruling India Bloc is expected to win between 25-30, 35-38 and 30-40 seats.
