`No match is decided until the last ball is thrown…`
While this may not be true for any cricket match, it has been absolutely accurate for Jharkhand’s election results. There was talk of a hand-to-hand competition. There was talk of a difference in the percentage of votes of between one and two percent. But when the results came, Hemant Soren managed to save his government by a considerable margin. At the same time, in Maharashtra, Mahayuti achieved a landslide victory, destroying all estimates. This resounding victory of the BJP alliance in Maharashtra has surprised analysts. Let’s know sequentially what factors were behind these results. Let us first talk about what issues gave Mahayuti an excellent victory in Maharashtra.
1. Polarizing Hindutva with ‘If we divide, we will be cut off’
2. Effort to reach OBC through “Madhav” card
3. He attracted female voters with ‘Ladki Bahina’
4. Focus on bringing Dalits back together
5. Overconfidence in MVA
6. Simplify the issue of cotton-onion-soybean-turmeric prices
1. Hindutva’s strategy of ‘If we divide, we will be cut off’ worked.
Firstly, Yogi had given the slogan of ‘Bantege to Katenge’ in UP. Later, Modi used this slogan in his own way as “Ek hain toh safe hain”. The basic objective of promoting this slogan was to polarize Hindu votes through it. After the latest Lok Sabha results, the BJP was well aware that the Muslim votes would not go in its favour. Rather, they will be polarized in favor of parties openly anti-BJP. After many ideas, this time the BJP was completely focused on uniting the Hindu voters. A pro-Hindutva atmosphere was created through the Modi-Yogi meetings, the results show that the BJP directly benefited from it. Apart from this, the Congress’ caste calculation or reservation card strategy also did not appear to be very effective. It seems that the BJP’s ‘Hindutva retrenchment’ is proving very successful against the strategy of the opposition parties.
2.Madhav Formula for OBC Integration
To counter Maratha dominance, the BJP focused on consolidating OBC votes. This strategy also included leveraging Madhav’s historic formula to unite various OBC communities. BJP worked on the Madhav formula created by combining the first letters of the Mali, Dhangar and Vanjari communities. Most of the people in this community are farmers, so agricultural products were worked on for them. In particular, export duties on onions were reduced. The construction of the Banjara Heritage Museum was part of this strategy. Similarly, for the Dhangar community, it was a masterstroke to change the name of Ahmednagar to Ahilya Nagar. Apart from this, the demand to include the Kunbi caste in the OBC was accepted. Also, to target another OBC caste, Teli, the BJP appointed Chandrashekhar Bawankule as its president. The rigging of these castes directly affected around 155 seats in central Maharashtra, Marathwada, western region and Vidarbha.
3.`Ladki Bahina Yojana` courted women voters with
Since the last assembly elections, the BJP has focused a lot on women voters. He has been bringing different types of schemes for them. Especially in the Madhya Pradesh-Chhattisgarh assembly elections, women overwhelmingly voted in favor of the BJP due to the Ladli Behen-Mahtari scheme. In Maharashtra, the Mahayuti alliance got information on the progress of its opponents and its own weaknesses in time. To counter this, he immediately launched Ladki Bahina Yojana… in fact, his dues were also paid to women for two months. There is no hesitation in believing that Mahayuti did damage control. He created the sympathy of women in his favor.
4. Effort to unite Dalit voters
There is a sizeable Dalit population in Maharashtra. Who traditionally votes for Congress. In the last Lok Sabha elections, Dalits voted overwhelmingly for the Congress. Taking a lesson from this, Mahayuti announced many populist plans for them. Likewise, special attention was paid to the Dalit caste in the selection of candidates.
5.MVA’s overconfidence
Mahavikas Adhadi’s overconfidence is also responsible to some extent for this victory of Mahayuti. The leaders continued to fight among themselves. They continued to fight over the post of Chief Minister. The accusations and counter-accusations continued. The way Mahayuti was correcting his course by learning from his mistakes. That kind of passion was not visible in Mahavikas Aghadi. In the Lok Sabha, the Congress had raised the issue of abolishing the Constitution, ending reservations and discrimination by the Center before the states. MVA continued to depend on the vote sentiment in its favor in the Lok Sabha. They felt this momentum would continue. Many emotional appeals were made to Mahavikas Aghadi, but they seem to have failed to convince people about the problems on the ground.
6. Worked on cotton, onion, soybean and turmeric prices over time.
In Maharashtra it is believed that onion farmers are changing the government. The same thing was going to happen: onion producers obtained very low prices for their production. BJP strategists realized this in time. The ban on export of onions has been lifted so that onion farmers get the right price. Due to this, onion prices began to rise. Through this exercise, a major issue against Mahayuti was addressed in time. Similarly, while talking about increasing the MSP, attempts were made to woo farmers of other produce as well.
Jharkhand:
Now let’s talk about the tribal state of Jharkhand. In this case, in general terms, between 3 and 4 issues influenced the mood of the public. First let us know how many seats there are in this state. How many seats are needed to have a majority?
Total seats in Jharkhand: 81.
Majority need – 41
direct competition- Between Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
What the results currently say: The India Bloc is forming a government.
Now let’s talk about what were the problems in the state that favored the leading JMM alliance.
1. Chief Minister Soren insult case
2. Mahtari Plan for working women
3. BJP failed to appeal Roti-Beti and Mati issues
1. Chief Minister Soren insult case
Just as the state’s Chief Minister Soren was sent to jail in a corruption case, he also worked against the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. JMM also made this an issue in this election. It was also linked to tribal identity. There was anger among the tribals over this issue. The BJP does not have much control over the tribals. While the party has a lot of influence in the state SC seats. To overcome this shortcoming and woo the tribals, this time the party relied on its own former leader and former CM of Jharkhand, Babulal Marandi and Champai Soren, brought in from the JMM. Especially with Champai, the BJP was hopeful that tribals from Kolhan area would join the party and vote. But it seems that these two leaders also failed to connect the tribals with the BJP.
2. Women’s Maiyan Samman Yojana worked
The Ladli Brahmin scheme regarding women, thanks to which the BJP had captured power in many states, was also included by INDIA Block in its seven guarantees issued for Jharkhand. Among these guarantees, the greatest emphasis was placed on the guarantee of respect for others. Under this scheme, women have been promised an honorarium of Rs 2,500 per month. The important thing about this plan was that it was to be implemented from December 2024. In a state like Jharkhand, an amount of Rs 2,500 per month is a lot. This warranty worked the most. In addition, guarantees were also given regarding food safety. In this a promise was made to provide a ration of 7 kg per person. Additionally, a promise was made to provide gas cylinders to all poor families in the state for Rs 450.
3. BJP failed to appeal Roti-Beti and Mati issues
The BJP had tried to gain power in the state by raising the issue of Bangladeshi infiltrators. But it seems that the BJP has failed to adequately explain the insiders’ point of view to the people. Union Home Minister Amit Shah had released the BJP’s resolution letter. He fiercely attacked the Hemant Soren government and said that this Jharkhand election is not just an election to change the government but an election to secure the future of Jharkhand. Amit Shah alleged that the present government has failed to save the identity of Jharkhand – Roti, Beti, Mati. The great people of Jharkhand have to decide whether they want a government steeped in corruption or a Modi ji-led BJP government moving forward on the path of development. The BJP had highlighted efforts by Bangladeshi infiltrators to seize the properties of local tribal women by marrying them and obtaining citizenship on this pretext. This means that the infiltrators are conspiring to snatch the bread, daughter and land of the people from the State. But the results show that the BJP failed to influence people on these issues. Apart from this, efforts were made to uplift the tribal society through efforts like Birsa Munda Jayanti, inauguration of its statue, tribal pride, etc. But these efforts were also not effective in attracting the public.
Overall, it can be believed that the issue of JMM’s tribal identity overshadowed the issue of BJP’s infiltration into Bangladesh and the development work of the Modi government.
