The cities of the future are just around the corner. Efficient and livable, where people are the center and technology has to make change possible, essential to match, among other aspects, the mobility needs of citizens and an environmentally responsible environment.
For now, this is the trend. What is needed is to specify it. The report The future of mobility: in search of a smart transition, conducted by The Valley, indicates that we are heading towards a sustainable and efficient urban environment based on intermodal mobility.
Along these lines, the Report of Deloitte City Mobility Index, analyzes mobility in 47 cities around the world and concludes that minimizing congestion and travel times, maintaining optimal infrastructures and expanding the supply of forms of transport is fundamental to what is known as smart cities and keys in the development of the mobility of the future.
This transformation represents an opportunity for the automotive industry, as Grant Thornton and the Ibercaja Foundation point out in the report of the Sustainable Mobility Observatory 2021, The new mobility: revolution and challenges, which highlights the industry’s commitment to investing in zero- and low-carbon technological developments, championing the transformation of the sector and of an entire productive ecosystem capable of causing a strong driving effect on the Spanish economy.
Today, the automotive industry represents up to 11% of GDP, employs 69,580 people directly and there are almost two million jobs throughout the value chain. Its contribution to the trade balance and its investment in innovation also make it a sector with high added value that, with the challenges posed by new habits and unavoidable sustainability, has great possibilities of experiencing exponential growth.
“We are transforming into the mobility industry on four axes: decarbonisation, connectivity, the autonomous vehicle and mobility as a service. These axes have become key to recovery: the digitization and decarbonization of the park in 2050 are European objectives and a shared commitment ”, says José López-Tafall, general director of Anfac.
If the current trend continues, changes in the purchase and use of vehicles by new users will lead to an increase in the age of the vehicle fleet in the coming years. According to ANFAC, young people have less interest in driving and, at the same time, the used vehicle market is growing among older users; cars over 15 years old are purchased to meet immediate mobility needs
The result, according to the automotive sector employers’ association, is that passenger cars currently have an average age of 13 years and, if this trend continues, in 2030 it would remain above 11 years. By then and according to ANFAC estimates, there would still be 3.7 million vehicles older than 20 years, 16% of the circulating fleet, and it would stand out as one of the oldest in Europe. That is, it would be less sustainable and safe than a new one.
To avoid this aging of the fleet, ANFAC considers a priority to promote the renovation and electrification of the current automobile fleet. For this, it is necessary that during the next decade about 19 million vehicles are scrapped and that they be replaced by 14 million zero and low emission vehicles in order to reduce the average age of the fleet to 9 years old and achieve the objectives of reduction of emissions required.
Changes in the modes and uses of vehicles, with the entry of the carsharing or other shared mobility solutions, added to vehicle casualties, will cause a 20% reduction in the vehicle fleet, which will allow reaching a total fleet of 20 million vehicles in 2030.
Within this scenario, the sector understands that breaking with this dynamic is the most immediate and transformative challenge and, in the same way, an economic, industrial and social opportunity for Spain. In its 2020-40 Automotive Plan, the association estimates that the new mobility environment will cause changes in the generation of value around the vehicle. In fact, the establishment of tools, measures and investment would mean an increase in the value of the future mobility industry by 50%, from the current 200,000 million to 310,000 million in 2040, considers ANFAC.
He also foresees that, by then, the economy will benefit in terms of added value and employment; According to their calculations, there will be an additional increase of between 7% and 12% to the national GDP and between 860,000 and 1,460,000 jobs will be added which, due to the greater specialization and professionalization required, will give way to new job profiles.
The Automotive Plan maintains that the increase in business value will be experienced in traditional businesses such as component manufacturing, marketing, maintenance, repairs, financial services and insurance, but also in other newcomers such as new components, software, data management and mobility on demand, including in the telecommunications or energy industrial sectors. All of them will generate the new mobility ecosystem.
Actors all of them in a new scenario that, according to ANFAC, must be accompanied by an improvement in the competitiveness of the sector in the most traditional sense – labor flexibility, labor costs, energy … – and an enhancement of technological investments that allow the Spanish industry to be more attractive to parent companies, located outside our country, and capable of responding to the specific aspects of the new mobility.
ANFAC points out in its document that this ecosystem of mobility and value generation will require on the part of the actors involved, among which are the vehicle manufacturers, an investment of more than 54,000 million, equivalent to 5% of the Spanish annual GDP during the next two decades.
Likewise, to create the favorable environment that allows the promotion of these investments, the collaboration of the Administration will be necessary with a series of actions that favor the “strong and sustained increase in the demand for electrified cars”. According to López-Tafall, this is a further boost to the development of the recharging infrastructure, an increase in the provision of incentive plans in the purchase and the approval of tax benefits to favor the renewal of the vehicle fleet.
The decarbonisation strategy at the national and international level, such as the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan or the United Nations agreements against climate change, place the automotive sector in a leading role due to its capacity for transformation and innovation.
In the chapter on sustainable mobility, the report of the Sustainable Mobility Observatory 2021 highlights that Spain has an important industrial value chain for charging infrastructures. Thus, one of the three main producers is Spanish, with a national manufacturing contribution between 70% and 90%.
Another of his conclusions is that electric vehicles will revolutionize mobility around the world as long as a series of critical challenges to overcome are met, such as price, charging time, infrastructure, range of vehicles and the choice of vehicles. themselves.
The document adds that green hydrogen will be key for Spain to achieve climate neutrality and a 100% renewable electricity system no later than 2050 that will lead our country towards a green economy with high added value.
Carpooling, carsharing, bikesharing, ikesharing, VTC Ride Hailing… People have changed and, with them, their way of being and moving around. The new mobility models have altered the paradigms of the automotive sector and, with them, the city model.
According to the report The new mobility: revolution and challenges, the carsharing It has 15 million users in the world, 400,000 in Spain –Madrid is the second city in Europe with the most shared cars circulating–.
In addition, our country became the world leader in bikesharing during the year 2018; The number of scooters available increased by almost 500% in the country, from 1,491 motorcycles in 2017 to 8,920 motorcycles.
Mobile applications are key in the development of the mobility sector. A single app allows you to combine all the transport options available in urban environments, public, private and shared transport, offering multimodal, integrated and digital solutions.