The question of victory or defeat in the Maharashtra assembly elections is not as easy as it is in other states. There are not 2 or 3 parties here, there are a total of 6 parties that face each other through two different alliances. The Bharatiya Janata Party, Shiv Sena, NCP, Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress have entered the fray with their respective demands. On the other hand, the alliance of Maha Vikas Aghadi Congress (MVA), NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT) is in the fray, while on the other hand, BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP are trying their luck under the banner by Mahayuti. There is a head to head competition between Mahayuti and MVA. Just a few days ago, in the Lok Sabha elections, the people of Maharashtra defeated the MVA. According to this, the MVA should get an advantage in the assembly elections. But just as the Congress lost control in Haryana, the same may happen in Maharashtra too.
1-Maratha Reserve
There is a continuing demand for Maratha reservation in Maharashtra under the leadership of Jarang Patil. The Maratha population is around 34 per cent across the state and is also politically conscious. If this community is angry with any party, it has a widespread impact. Seen from this perspective, Mahavikas Aghadi seems very strong against his rival Mahayuti. Firstly, the Maratha votes have gone to the Congress like the Jats of Haryana and Rajasthan. Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, son of Balasaheb Thackeray, a symbol of Maratha self-respect, are also together in the second Mahavikas Aghadi. By contrast, the BJP is the Mahayuti’s largest party. Even today the BJP does not have any legitimate Maratha leader. Due to this, BJP has appointed Eknath Shinde CM. Another Maratha Ajit Pawar is also included in the Mahayuti alliance, but he has been accused of betraying his uncle, thus becoming a villain among the Marathas.
2-Asaduddin Owaisi
Asaduddin Owaisi’s MIMIM has the power to ruin the game in many seats in Maharashtra. The party wanted to be part of the MVA alliance in Maharashtra, but the Congress probably did not approve it. MIMIM’s performance has been to contest 44 seats in the 2019 assembly elections and win two seats. The total percentage of votes was 1.34%. This was better than 2014. When the party contested 22 seats, it managed to win two seats and got only 0.93% of the total votes. Although AIMIM defines itself as a party that works for the interests of Muslims, compared to the so-called secular parties of the Muslim community, the figures show that its influence has been very limited, but today the percentage of votes is less than one percent. It makes a big difference in the number of seats. In this context, taking MIMIM lightly puts both alliances in trouble. Today the Congress has to sit in opposition due to less than one per cent votes in Haryana.
Exactly the same thing happened during the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra. Due to the increase of only 0.7 percent of votes, Mahavikas Aghadi defeated the ruling Mahayuti. With less than one percent of the votes, Mahayuti won 17 seats while MVA won 31 seats. AIMIM contested 44 seats in 2019, winning Malegaon and Dhule, and coming second in Aurangabad Central, Aurangabad East, Byculla and Solapur City Central. The party’s influence was felt in 13 more seats, where it won more votes than the margin of victory. The BJP and its allies won seven of these seats and six went to the Congress-NCP alliance.
3-If Hindutva is divided further, it will be destroyed
Shiv Sena and BJP have been doing politics in the name of Hindutva in Maharashtra. Now Shiv Sena is divided. Former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, son of Hindu Emperor Bala Saheb Thackeray, is currently the most popular among Muslims due to his aggression against the BJP, but has now been accepted by the Muslim community. Savarkar’s name comes next. Rahul Gandhi constantly makes such comments about Savarak that Marathas should never like him. This party has been involved in the decision to change the names of cities named after Mughals. Obviously, the new form of Shiv Sena (UBT) can be beneficial for the BJP. Meanwhile, the slogan of dividing Maharashtra is becoming popular.
4-Alliance with Ajit Pawar
Ajit Pawar was seen as the main reason behind the defeat of BJP’s political alliance Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra. In fact, there were serious allegations of corruption against Ajit Pawar. The BJP itself has been accusing Ajit Pawar of a scam worth several billion rupees. Even two days before Ajit Pawar joined the NDA, senior BJP leaders continued to accuse him. The Sangh itself had opposed Pawar’s inclusion in the government and making him deputy CM. The BJP’s image was tarnished when Ajit Pawar joined the alliance. It was repeatedly said that all of Ajit Pawar’s corruption was washed away in the BJP’s washing machine. Apart from this, since Ajit Pawar had come to Mahayuti by betraying his uncle Sharad Pawar just because of his helplessness, his image in Maharashtra has become so negative that it is natural that it affects the BJP.
5- Stepsister scheme
The Girl Sister program in Maharashtra may be a turning point for the Mahayuti government. A similar scheme to provide financial assistance to women in Madhya Pradesh, in which Rs 1,200 was deposited every month in women’s accounts, had gone a long way in building the BJP’s fortune. Also in Maharashtra, along the lines of Madhya Pradesh, 1,500 rupees are given every month. Around 34 lakh 74 thousand 116 women benefit from this scheme. The government plans to expand it further in the future. The monthly amount will also increase. However, Congress has also promised a similar plan in many states. Due to the increasing role of women voters in voting, it is certain that the Mahayuti alliance can benefit from this plan.
6-betrayal
The betrayal in the Maharashtra elections is an aspect on which at least two parties will seek votes. When Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) continuously appear in the public, it definitely shows how great the betrayal they have been subjected to. Uddhav Thackeray was betrayed by Eknath Shinde and Sharad Pawar was betrayed by his nephew Ajit Pawar. From the way Ajit Pawar’s party was eliminated in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, it seems that people are very angry with Ajit Pawar for betraying his uncle Sharad Pawar. From the way Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule defeated Ajit Pawar’s wife in the Baramati Lok Sabha seat, it seems that the sympathies of the people of Maharashtra are with Sharad Pawar. Similarly, Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde, Chief Minister of Maharashtra, broke the party and became the CM of the state. The same message has been sent to common people that Uddhav Thackeray was misled a lot. There was no party, no stall.
7-Preparation for Dalit subquota
After the support received from non-Jatav Dalits in Haryana, the BJP decided to classify Dalit reservation in Haryana. It may be noted that recently the Supreme Court decided to create a category in Dalit reservation. To get the support of the non-Ambedkarised Dalit castes in Maharashtra, the BJP can promise to implement the Supreme Court decision here too.
