The level of air pollution is increasing rapidly in Delhi-NCR. According to the latest data from the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the growing air pollution problem in Delhi has taken a worrying turn. Last Tuesday, stubble burning’s contribution to Delhi’s pollution hit this season’s highest level of 8%, up from 3.2% on Monday. This figure is expected to increase significantly in the coming days with the arrival of winter, which may pose a serious risk to air quality and public health. Today, pollution caused by stubble burning is expected to increase by about 15% on Wednesday, which will increase to about 21% by Thursday and stabilize at about 20% by Friday.
Delhi still won’t get pollution relief
The dangerous rise in pollution levels can be attributed to increasing incidents of crop burning. Last Tuesday, 1,483 fire incidents were recorded, the highest number of this season and much higher than the 544 incidents on Monday. The highest number was last recorded on October 12 with 964 incidents. This disturbing trend is increasing not only in Punjab and Haryana due to agricultural practices but is also spreading to other states like Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
As the impact of stubble burning continues to grow, it is expected to overtake vehicular pollution as the main contributor to Delhi’s smog. The contribution of transport pollution on October 23, 24 and 25 will be 13.5%, 14.6% and 15.1% respectively. Vehicle emissions have been the dominant factor until now, but the rapid increase in crop residue fires is changing the dynamics of pollution sources.
The air quality in Delhi will deteriorate significantly in the coming days. It is forecast to enter the “very poor” category from October 24 to 26, 2024. This worrying trend is expected to worsen over the next six days, with air quality potentially reaching the “severe” category. Weather conditions are not favorable for the dispersion of pollutants, since calm winds blow at night that trap pollutants close to the ground.
There was a change in the direction of surface winds in Delhi and on October 23 the speed remained between 6 and 12 kilometers per hour, along with fog in the morning and clear skies during the day. Tomorrow, October 24, winds are expected to blow from the north-northwest and from the north at the same speed. Apart from this, for October 25 the wind direction will again be variable, whose speed will be between 6 to 14 kilometers per hour. On October 26, winds will blow from the east-southeast direction, which will decrease to a speed of 6 to 8 kilometers per hour, which will make the spread of pollution even more difficult.
The estimated maximum mixing depth, which is an important factor affecting air quality, will be reduced from 1,500 meters on October 23 to 1,250 meters on October 26. Meanwhile, the ventilation rate, which should ideally be above 6,000 m²/s for effective dispersion of pollutants, will drop sharply from 7,800 m²/s on October 23 to only 3,000 m²/s on October 26. This, combined with an average wind speed of less than 10 kilometers per hour, creates an unfavorable environment for cleaning pollutants from the air.
Due to deteriorating air quality and inability to provide immediate relief, residents of Delhi are advised to exercise caution. Especially those people who are in poor health. Efforts should be made to minimize outdoor activities during this period to reduce adverse health effects due to poor air quality.
