Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati, Jayant Chaudhary, Yogi Adityanath
There is no danger of power formation or deterioration due to the by-elections to be held in 9 Uttar Pradesh assembly seats, but even after that, the question of reputation of political parties remains. The BJP wants to settle the score for the 2024 Lok Sabha defeat through by-elections, while the SP is struggling to maintain its political atmosphere. Thus, CM Yogi Adityanath’s credibility with SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary and BSP chief Mayawati is at stake. This is the reason why UP’s electoral fight has become the 2027 semi-final.
In the UP by-elections, voting will be held on November 13 in the assembly seats of Karhal, Mirapur, Ghaziabad, Khair, Sisamau, Kundarki, Katehari, Majhwan and Phulpur. Of the seats in the state where elections are being held, there were SP MLAs in four seats and BJP MLAs in three seats. Apart from this, there were RLD MLAs in one seat and Nishad Party MLAs in one seat. SP and BSP have fielded their candidates for all 9 seats, while BJP is trying its luck in 8 seats and its ally RLD is contesting for one seat.
CM Yogi’s litmus test in the by-elections
Whether the BJP wins or loses the Uttar Pradesh by-elections, in both cases the credit will go to CM Yogi Adityanath. That is why the by-elections are considered very important for CM Yogi. After the defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP does not want to lose the by-elections under any circumstances. In such a situation, he himself has taken the responsibility of the by-elections. The BJP is establishing its own aggressive election campaign strategy. CM Yogi faces the challenge of winning three seats from the BJP and two seats from his allies. Apart from this, there is the challenge of making lotuses bloom in the seats occupied by SP.
The BJP’s record of winning by-elections while in power in the state has not been very good. Apart from this, CM Yogi Adityanath’s credibility is at stake with the way the SP has turned the by-elections into semi-finals of the 2027 elections. The result of the UP by-elections will directly be seen as CM Yogi’s control about UP. If BJP loses, questions will arise about CM Yogi. The by-elections ahead of the 2027 assembly elections are nothing less than a litmus test for them. Apart from this, the responsibility also falls on him to connect the backward-Dalit vote bank that has escaped from the party.
Big test for Akhilesh Yadav
By winning 37 seats in UP in the Lok Sabha elections, the SP has become the number one party in the state. The Congress has completely abandoned the by-election field for the SP and the SP has fielded its candidates for all 9 seats. The SP has fielded four Muslim candidates, three OBC and two Dalits and has played with the PDA formula, i.e. the backward, Dalit and minority formula. The SP has won the Lok Sabha election battle with this strategy. If the SP manages to win more seats in the by-elections after the Congress victory, then it will be an opportunity for Akhilesh Yadav to refine the PDA formula and create an atmosphere for 2027.
For Akhilesh Yadav, in the by-elections the SP intends to maintain its dominance in four seats: Karhal, Katehari, Sisamau and Kundarki. In 2022, SP had vacated the Meerapur seat for RLD. In this way, Akhilesh faces the challenge of getting as many seats as possible. While in opposition, the SP lost seats like Rampur and Azamgarh, but managed to win seats in Ghosi and Mainpuri. In this way, by winning the by-elections, Akhilesh will try to change the political environment in his favor and if he loses, the color of victory in 2024 will fade.
Mayawati to be tested in by-elections
BSP’s political graph is falling day by day. While the BSP was limited to one seat in the 2022 assembly elections, its account was not even opened in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BSP’s vote share has also fallen below 10 per cent in UP . The non-Jatav Dalit vote bank has been continuously moving away from the BSP, now its main Jatav vote bank is also moving away. In such a situation, the by-elections became very important for the BSP. The BSP has contested the by-elections after a long time and its last victory in the by-elections was in 2010. Thus, the BSP faces the challenge of breaking 14 years of political exile.
Of the nine assembly seats in the state where byelections are being held, it has won seats in Meerapur, Ghaziabad, Majhwan, Khair, Katehari and Phulpur. In such a situation, the BSP holds elections in the areas of its political influence, which is why it has not stopped participating in the by-elections. The BSP has taken its first political steps in the by-elections. They have fielded two Muslim candidates, three Brahmins, one Dalit, one Thakur and two OBCs. The UP by-elections are considered semi-final and hence considered very important for BSP. If the BSP loses the by-elections, the atmosphere will be even more depressing.
Challenge to prove before Jayant Chaudhary
While Union Minister and RLD leader Jayant Choudhary’s test is in the Meerapur Assembly seat, the challenge is to transfer Jat votes in favor of the BJP. In 2022, RLD managed to win the Meerapur seat with the support of SP, but this time RLD has an alliance with BJP. The way Jayant carried out a political experiment in Meerapur by fielding a candidate from the Pal community instead of Jat and Gurjar, the contest is not easy for RLD. In such a situation, RLD has put all its strength to win the Meerapur seat.
RLD chief Jayant Choudhary’s challenge is to prove himself in the Meerapur seat, while in Khair and Kundarki seats the challenge is to get Jat votes in favor of the BJP. Well, SP has fielded Charu Kane, who is married into a Jat family, as a candidate. In such a situation, there is a danger of Jat votes being dispersed in favor of the BJP, while the challenge is to get Jat votes in favor of the BJP in Kundarki and Ghaziabad seats. In 2024, Jayant Chaudhary managed to win both seats from his quota by forming an alliance with the BJP, but could not transfer Jat votes to other seats. Due to this, BJP leaders also raised questions with him. In such a situation, now we have to see how Jayant performs in the by-elections?
