In the Maharashtra Assembly elections, there appears to be a direct contest between the Congress-led Indian Alliance (Maha Vikas Aghadi) and the BJP-led NDA (Mahayuti). Of the total 288 seats in the state, around a quarter of the assembly seats may be the tipping point in power. In the last elections, the difference between victory and defeat in 73 assembly seats was less than ten thousand votes. In such a situation, if some votes are transferred to these seats, the entire game can go wrong, so these seats scare some and give hope to others.
The nomination round for the Maharashtra Assembly elections is underway and the last date to file nominations is October 29. This time the nature of both alliances has completely changed. The BJP-led NDA is accompanied by Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, while the Congress-led Indian alliance is accompanied by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP(S). Apart from this, everyone from Prakash Ambedkar’s party to Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and Raj Thackeray’s MNS are trying their luck in the Maharashtra political battle.
Low margin 73 seat equation
In the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena fought together, while the Congress and NCP fought together. In the last elections, the margin of victory and defeat in five seats was less than a thousand votes, while in four seats the margin of victory and defeat was between one thousand and 2 thousand votes. The difference between victory and defeat in 28 seats was between 2,000 and 5,000. There were 36 seats where there was a difference of five to 10 thousand votes.
Due to the evolving political situation in relation to the assembly elections, all political power lies in 73 seats with low margins in the state. The margin of victory in the last elections on these 73 seats was less than 10,000 votes, where the manipulation of a few votes would change the power game. If we look at the results of the last elections, out of 73 seats with low margins, the BJP controls 28 seats. The NCP won 15 seats, Congress won 12 seats and Shiv Sena won 5 seats. In addition, others and independents won 13 seats.
Five seats with a margin of less than one thousand
In the 2019 assembly elections, the difference between victory and defeat in five seats was less than a thousand votes. These seats were Chandivali, Arjuni-Morgaon, Daund, Sangola and Kopargaon. Shiv Sena and the NCP won two seats each, while the BJP won one seat. Shiv Sena’s Dilip Bhausaheb Lande won the Chandivali seat by just 409 votes. NCP’s Chandrikapure Manohar Govardhan won the Arjuni-Morgaon seat by 718 votes. BJP’s Rahul Shubhasrao had won the Daund assembly seat by 746 votes. Shahjibapu Rajaram Patil of Shiv Sena became MLA from Sangola seat in Solapur district with 768 votes. Apart from this, NCP’s Ashutosh Ashokrao Kale had won the Kopargaon seat by just 822 votes.
Seat with a difference of one to two thousand votes
In the last elections there was a difference of between one thousand and two thousand votes in four assembly seats of Maharashtra. These seats are Bhiwandi East, Murtijapur, Muktainagar and Beed. SP’s Raees Shaikh had won the Bhiwandi East seat by 1,314 votes. BJP’s Harish Pimple had won the Murtijapur seat by 1,910 votes. Independent Chandrakant Nimba Patil had won the Muktai Nagar seat by 1,957 votes. NCP’s Sandeep Ravindra Srisagar was elected MLA from Beed seat by winning by 1,984 votes. Thus, out of four seats with margins of 1,000 to 2,000, SP, BJP, NCP and Independent had won one seat each.
Seats with margin less than five thousand rupees
There have been 28 seats in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, where the margin of victory or defeat was between 2,000 and 5,000 votes. These seats are Dhule, Nevasa, Ramtek, Bhokardan, Pusad, Hadgaon, Bhokar, Nayagaon, Deglar, Mukhed, Udgir, Ahmedpur, Solapur Central, Shirol, Karad North, Karad South, Sangola, Mahadi, Pune Cantt, Maval, Chembur, Chandivali , Majalgaon, Bhandup, Malad West, Dindosi, Nashik Central, Dahanu and Dhule City are electoral districts.
In 2019, among seats with a difference of 2,000 to 5,000, the BJP managed to win 12 seats, while the NCP won six seats. Congress had captured four seats, while Shiv Sena managed to win two seats. Apart from this, Asaduddin Owaisi’s party had won one seat in Dhule, while Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, CPI and Independent had won one seat each.
Seats with a difference of five to ten thousand
In the last assembly elections held in Maharashtra, the difference between victory and defeat in 35 seats was between five thousand and 10 thousand votes. These seats: Sahada, Sakri, Akota, Amalner, Chikhali, Sinkhed Raja, Dhamangaon Railway, Achalapur, Morsi, Nagpur West, Tumsar, Sakoli, Amgaon, Chimur, Ralegaon, Pusad, Varsoya, Umarkhed, Basmath, Kalwan, Nashik West, Kalyan Rural, Bandra East, Uran, Junar, Bhor, Shivajinagar, Pune Cantt, Gevrai, Karmala, Koregaon, Karad Dakshin, Hatkangale and Sangli constituencies.
In 2019, of the seats where the win-loss margin was between 5,000 and 10,000, the BJP had won 14 seats and the Congress had won 8 seats. The NCP won six seats, independents won three seats, Shiv Sena won one seat and other candidates won three seats. In this way the political equation of seats with low margins can be understood.
The electoral game will change due to the change in equation
Maharashtra’s political equation has changed a lot this time compared to the last elections. The form of alliance is different, but after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a lot of Godavari water has flowed. After the defeat, the NDA alliance tried to win the hearts of voters by opening the treasury to free government schemes, while the Indian alliance, Maha Vikas Aghadi, also opened its doors. The challenge before the BJP leadership is the seats of Marathwada, Western Maharashtra and Mumbai, where the Indian Alliance had taken the lead in the Lok Sabha elections. During the Lok Sabha elections, there was a fierce fight between the two alliances for seats. low margins in 2019 assembly elections.
Although voting patterns are different in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, the voting figures give an indication of the upcoming results. In 2019, in 73 seats where the margin of victory or defeat was less than ten thousand votes, the entire game changes due to the movement of a few votes here and there. This time the political situation has changed in the Maharashtra assembly elections, where earlier the main contest was between four parties from two alliances, now there are 6 parties and two alliances. In such a situation, the low-margin seat scares some people and raises hopes in others. In such a situation, it remains to be seen what the results will be this time.
