Akhilesh Yadav and Yogi Adityanath.
The board has been set up for the assembly by-elections in Uttar Pradesh. Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav has introduced Tej Pratap Yadav as his political ‘Bharat’ from Karhal seat. In terms of caste arithmetic and electoral record so far, Karhal’s politics have been favorable to the SP and challenging to the opposition. That’s why Akhilesh had made Karhal his workplace in 2022 and was now expressing confidence in his nephew. In such a situation, BJP has given ticket to Anujesh Pratap Yadav to storm SP’s fort. In this way, BJP has used the 22-year-old formula to make the lotus bloom in Karhal.
SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had decided to contest the assembly elections for the first time in the year 2022, for which he had chosen the Karhal assembly seat in Mainpuri. He was elected MLA from Karhal but resigned from assembly membership after becoming MP from Kannauj in 2024. Karhal area is considered a strong SP bastion.
Since the formation of the Samajwadi Party, the SP has maintained its monopoly over the Karhal seat. The SP has been winning this seat continuously since 1993, but only lost the election once. That year was 2002. By defeating the SP, the BJP had flourished in Mulayam Singh Yadav’s stronghold. Now, once again, the BJP wants to repeat the same charisma in the by-elections.
Political equation of Karhal seat
The Karhal assembly seat of Mainpuri district came into existence politically after delimitation in the year 1956. Since it is a Yadav dominated seat, most of the MLAs have been elected from the Yadav community. Even before the formation of the SP and before that, only leaders close to Mulayam Singh had won from the Karhal seat. In 1957, Praja Socialist Party’s wrestler Nathu Singh Yadav became the first MLA. After that, Nathu Singh won on the Swatantra Party ticket in 1962, 1967 and 1969, Bharatiya Kranti Dal in 1974 and the Janata Party in 1977, but in 1980 Shivmangal Singh of the Congress won.
Due to Karhal’s political equation, Baburam Yadav’s rule continued from 1985 to 1996. Baburam Yadav had won three elections on the Janata Dal ticket, but when Mulayam Singh Yadav formed the SP, Baburam also joined him. As an SP candidate in 1993 and 1996, Baburam had won from Karhal seat. After this, SP only lost the assembly elections in 2002 and from then till now SP’s dominance continues in Karhal seat.
BJP stormed SP’s fort in 2002
Due to the political dominance of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Yadav votes, the SP’s absolute rule continued in the Karhal seat. BSP chief Mayyati was UP chief minister four times, but the BSP elephant in Karhal could not stop the speed of the SP cycle. The BJP used the same tactics to penetrate Karhal, which had become a strong SP bastion. It is about the assembly elections of 2002. While Anil Yadav was contesting on the SP ticket, BJP turned the Karhal election battle into Yadav versus Yadav by giving the ticket to Sobran Singh Yadav.
Sobran Singh Yadav had left the SP and joined the BJP; he was aware of both the weakness and strength of the SP in the Karhal seat. From Mulayam Singh Yadav to Shivpal Yadav, everyone worked day and night in Karhal to make Anil Yadav victorious, but the biggest tilt of Yadav votes was towards BJP’s Sobran Yadav. In a close fight in Karhal, BJP’s Sobran Yadav got 50,031 votes, while SP candidate Anil Yadav got 49,106 votes. Thus, after a tough fight, the BJP managed to win the Karhal seat by just 925 votes.
The defeat from Karhal seat was a big political blow not only for the SP but also for Mulayam Singh Yadav. That is why Mulayam Singh Yadav created a political structure to include Sobran Yadav in SP and was successful in 2004. Sobran Yadav continued to win the assembly elections here till 2017 and in 2022 he vacated the Karhal seat for Akhilesh Yadav. Akhilesh Yadav has become an MLA and has now fielded Tej Pratap in the by-elections to be held after he leaves the seat.
BJP used 22-year-old formula
In the by-elections being held in the Karhal seat, the SP has fielded former MP Tej Pratap Yadav, grandson of Mulayam Singh Yadav and son-in-law of Lalu Prasad Yadav. In such a situation, the BJP has fielded Anujesh Pratap Yadav, son-in-law of Mulayam Singh Yadav and brother-in-law of SP MP Dharmendra Yadav, while Avneesh Shakya is the BSP candidate. Thus, the electoral contest for the Karhal seat is between the Saifai family, that is, the Mulayam family. Just as the BJP defeated SP’s Yadav candidate by fielding its Yadav candidate in 2002, similarly it has gone for BJP’s Anujesh Yadav against SP’s Tej Pratap Yadav.
Tej Pratap Yadav has been MP from Mainpuri and has taken over the election management from Dimple Yadav. BJP has fielded Anujesh Pratap Yadav, son-in-law of the Saifai family, who is the husband of Sandhya Yadav, sister of SP MP Dharmendra Yadav. Sandhya has been the President of Mainupri District Panchayat from 2015 to 2020 and Anujesh Yadav has been a member of Firozabad District Panchayat. By fielding Anujesh, the BJP is trying to steal votes from Yadav. This time the contest in Karhal will be between Saifai’s family and relatives. If there is a split in Yadav votes, then political tension may increase for the SP. That’s why Dharmendra Yadav is gaining ground with Anujesh.
Caste equation of Karhal seat
There are around 3.25 lakh voters in Karhal seat, of which around 1.25 lakh are Yadav voters. After this, the Dalit community has 40 thousand votes and the Shakya community has 38 thousand votes. Pal and Thakur communities have 30,000 voters each and Muslim voters are 20,000. The voters of the Brahmin-Lodh-Vaishya community are around 15,000 to 15,000. In Karhal, after Yadav, Dalit and Shakya voters are important, while Baghel and Thakur voters are important. Shakya and Kshatriya voters have been considered the BJP’s core voters in Karhal seat.
The BJP had made a bid to win over Baghel voters by fielding SP Baghel in the year 2022. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav got 148,197 votes while BJP candidate Baghel got 80,692 votes. Akhilesh defeated Baghel by 67,504 votes. BSP candidate Kuldeep Narayan got 15,701 votes.
To break Akhilesh’s stronghold in the by-elections, the BJP not only fielded candidate Yadav but also went for the family’s son-in-law Mulayam. In this way, the fight between SP vs BJP for Karhal seat has become quite interesting.
The SP wants to maintain its dominance in Karhal with the help of the equation of Yadav, Shakya and Muslim votes. The way the BSP chief fielded a candidate from the Shakya community, the intention is to register victory with the help of the Dalit-Shakya equation. The BJP is trying to win the trust of Yadav voters along with Lodhi and Baghel, keeping the vote bank of its upper-caste Thakur-Brahmin community intact. In such a situation, it remains to be seen whether the SP will be able to maintain its victory through Tej Pratap or whether the BJP will manage to make Lotus flourish like in 2002.
