Hyderabad: The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 (ETP-2024) report provides an analysis of the future of clean energy technology manufacturing and international trade. It focuses on six key technologies (EVs, batteries, solar PV, wind turbines, heat pumps and electrolyzers) that account for almost half of global clean energy investment, with a market size of more than $700 billion. .
The report assesses the economic opportunities that a modern, clean energy economy is creating and how investment in the manufacturing of clean energy technologies and materials is reshaping global trade flows. ETP-2024 also considers the need to build secure and resilient supply chains for the clean energy transition.
regional focus
- India: Manufacturing investment has quintupled since 2020, with India’s global share rising from 1.5 percent to 3 percent. Through initiatives like the Production Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme, India aims to become a net exporter of clean technologies by 2035.
- China: A leader in low-cost manufacturing for all six technologies, China facilities operate at costs 25 to 95 percent lower than those in the United States and Europe. China’s clean technology exports are expected to offset its fossil fuel imports around 2050 under current policies and by 2035 under stricter climate policies.
Report Highlights
- The global clean energy technology market has quadrupled since 2015, reaching more than $700 billion by 2023. This market could reach more than $2 trillion by 2035, equivalent to the global crude oil market.
- Global trade in these technologies will triple within a decade, potentially reaching $575 billion, 50 percent more than current trade in natural gas.
- China is expected to remain the world’s clean energy manufacturing superpower, with its exports projected to exceed $340 billion by 2035.
- India’s transformation: Under rapid transition scenarios, India could move from a net importer to an exporter by 2035, potentially generating $30 billion in cleantech exports and reducing its fossil fuel import bill by 20 percent.
Opportunities for emerging markets
- Latin America and Brazil: Favorable conditions for the manufacturing of wind turbines could multiply exports by six by 2035.
- Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa: These regions, which currently represent less than 5 percent of the global value of clean technologies, have growth potential, as identified through a country-by-country assessment of more than 60 indicators.
Trade and energy security:
Clean energy commodities are expected to increase energy flexibility, as a container ship filled with solar PV modules could equal the power of 50 large LNG tankers or more than 100 coal shipments. Today, about 50 percent of maritime trade in clean energy technology passes through the Strait of Malacca, more than double the amount of fossil fuel trade that passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Future Outlook: North Africa is poised to become a major player in electric vehicle manufacturing due to favorable conditions.
