Today a new government has been formed in Sri Lanka. In the parliamentary elections, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) won 159 of 225 seats in Parliament. In the 2020 elections, the PNP was only able to win 3 seats. This time the PNP obtained 62 percent of the votes. Dissanayake’s popularity has increased significantly after winning the presidential election in September. In the presidential elections he obtained 42 percent of the votes.
Opposition leader Sajit Premadasa’s party, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), won 40 seats. The Rajapaksa family’s long-ruling Podujana Peramuna Party (PPP) in Sri Lanka has been reduced to just three seats. In the last election, the PPP won 145 seats. At the same time, former president Ranil Wickremesinghe’s New Democratic Front (NDF) won five seats.
In a way, this time Dissanayake has caused a tsunami in Sri Lanka’s parliamentary elections. Victory in the elections was very important for Dissanayake, because in the presidential elections he had only obtained 42 percent of the votes. To implement his policies, he needed to obtain a majority in Parliament.
Harini Amarasuriya has been re-elected Prime Minister of the new Sri Lankan government. After winning the presidential election in September, Dissanayake appointed Harini Amarasuriya as Prime Minister.
What was the Dissanayake tsunami like?
The PNP’s performance in the Sri Lanka elections is being compared to a tsunami. This is because this is the first time that a party or alliance in Sri Lanka has crossed the 150 mark. Not only this, for the first time a party got 61.56 percent of the votes.
In the 2010 elections, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s party won 60.33 percent of the vote. Rajapaksa’s party could only get 3 percent of the vote this time.
Dissanayake’s party, with communist ideology, also made history in the Jaffna district. Tamils are dominant here and Tamil nationalist parties have always been victorious here. But this time Dissanayake’s party won here with more than 62 percent of the votes. The PNP had promised to get the economy back on track.
This time more than 160 deputies have been elected for the first time. Only 37 deputies have been re-elected by the public. More than 100 of the deputies elected for the first time belong to the PNP.
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What could be the impact on India?
Ranil Wickremesinghe took charge of Sri Lanka after the fall of Rajapaksa’s government in May 2022. Wickremesinghe considers himself pro-India. But now, since September, Dissanayake is the president there. Dissanayake’s party still did not have a majority in Parliament. But now they also have more than two-thirds of the deputies in Parliament.
The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna Party (JVP), to which Dissanayake belongs, has been involved in two violent movements in Sri Lanka in the past. First- 1971 and second- from 1987 to 1989. India had helped Sri Lanka suppress both rebellions. Therefore, JVP in a way sees India as its adversary.
However, during the Dissanayake era, JVP’s outlook towards India changed. He believes India’s support is very important for Sri Lanka’s progress. When Dissanayake arrived in India in February last year, he met External Affairs Minister Jaishankar. Jaishankar then described this meeting as a good step towards further strengthening bilateral relations. After this, NSA Ajit Doval also went to Sri Lanka and met Dissanayake.
Why is India helpless against Sri Lanka?
Closeness between Sri Lanka and China increased during the Rajapaksa government. China bankrupted Sri Lanka by granting loans. When Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy in April 2022, it was more than $51 billion in debt. India helped Sri Lanka a lot to come out of the economic crisis. India has helped with more than 4 billion dollars.
Dissanayake cannot spoil relations with India even if he wants to, because it could damage its economy. While the public has handed power to Dissanayake due to his promise to get the economy back on track. India is Sri Lanka’s second largest trading country after China. Sri Lanka is highly dependent on India for oil.
However, they cannot ignore China either, but it is also an obligation for Dissanayake and his government to improve relations with India, because they have seen that India will be useful to them when they need it.
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Sri Lanka is important for India too!
Like other South Asian countries, China also has a lot of influence in Sri Lanka. Of Sri Lanka’s $51 billion debt, more than 11 percent is owed to China. In 2019, due to inability to repay the loan, the Sri Lankan government had to cede Hambantota port to China on a 99-year lease.
Dissanayake has a leftist ideology and China will take advantage of this and try to put him on his side. Therefore, it is important that India also keeps Sri Lanka to itself. Following the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August, India lost its important ally Bangladesh.
China has dominance over all of India’s neighbors. Relations with Pakistan have been strained since independence. And for some years now, Pakistan has been sitting in China’s lap. Bhutan, surrounded by land on all sides, is also seen moving closer to China. Its talks with China to resolve the border dispute are in the final stages. Nepal also has the government of KP Sharma Oli, which is close to China. Maldivian President Mohammed Muizzu is also considered pro-China. Myanmar has been under military rule for three and a half years and during this time it has also increased its closeness to China. Taking all this into account, Sri Lanka has become even more important for India.
The second important reason is that Sri Lanka is located in a place in the Indian Ocean, which is the center of maritime trade. Sri Lanka is close to the southern coast of India, which can be very useful in naval strategy.
Overall, ideologically, Sri Lanka’s Dissanayake government may be close to China, but economically, India is its compulsion. Similarly, whatever Dissanayake’s party’s stance towards India has been in the past, Sri Lanka is also very important for India to reduce China’s dominance.
