The Maharashtra Premier League (Assembly elections) will be held on November 20. Two teams compete for the trophy: Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and Mahayuti. Congress is the captain of MVA; Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) are players. The Bharatiya Janata Party is Mahayuti’s captain. Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar) are the players.
The MPL will have six matches at six different grounds: Vidarbha, Marathwada, North Maharashtra, West Maharashtra, Mumbai and Thane-Konkan. Both teams have versatile and specialist players. All courses have their own characteristics and players require a special skill set to play successful innings on them. Players like NCP (AP) and NCP (SP) are experts in the field of Western Maharashtra. Congress and BJP dominate the Vidarbha countryside. At the same time, the tone in Mumbai and Thane-Konkan remains favorable for both factions in the army.
Characteristics of different political shades of Maharashtra.
Vidarbha: This is a drought-affected area of Maharashtra where it rains less. Vidarbha is the epicenter of the agricultural crisis in the state. More than half of the farmer suicides in Maharashtra occur in Vidarbha. It is a relatively backward area of the state whose per capita income is 30 per cent of the Maharashtra average.
Marathwada: One-third of Maharashtra’s Maratha population lives here. This region, like Vidarbha, is facing drought (less affected than Vidarbha). Marathwada is in the forefront after Vidarbha in the issue of farmer suicides. Its per capita income is only 60 per cent of the rest of Maharashtra.
Western Maharashtra: This region is called the sugar bowl of the state. In this area there is a strong cooperative system: sugar factories, credit societies, banks. Western Maharashtra is a strong and economically viable region that is also home to the state’s automobile and IT industries.
Northern Maharashtra: The main agricultural products of this region include grapes, bananas and onions. The ban on onion exports had become a major political issue in the region during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The city of Nashik in northern Maharashtra is economically developed. Other districts are included among the 250 most backward districts of India. Here the Recognized Tribes are the ones who make kings.
Thane-Konkan: This region is the third largest industrial hub in Maharashtra. Thane has the second highest per capita income after Mumbai. Most of Thane-Konkan is an urban area, where a large number of migrant population working in factories and industries (people who come from other states to work) live.
Mumbai: This is a 100 percent urban area. Mumbai is called the financial capital of the country, where the stock exchange, headquarters of banks and other financial companies are located. Its per capita income is three times higher than that of the backward areas of the state. The share of immigrants in Mumbai’s population is around 43.02 per cent. People come here from other states and do jobs and jobs. A large population from UP and Bihar lives in Mumbai.
Which team plays how many games in the MPL?
The BJP is contesting elections on 143 seats on behalf of Mahayuti. Shiv Sena (Shinde) is contesting on 81 seats, NCP (Ajit Pawar) on 59 seats and other allies are contesting on six seats. There is no Mahayuti candidate for the Malegaon Central seat. Two parties from the grand alliance are competing against each other for eight seats. In three seats, there is a friendly fight between BJP and NCP (AP) and in five seats, there is a friendly fight between Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (AP).
The BJP is contesting the highest number of seats in Vidarbha (47), followed by Western Maharashtra (31) and Marathwada (20). He faces a difficult situation in Vidarbha, where soybean prices have become a major issue, and in Marathwada, where the Maratha agitation cost him dearly in the general elections. In western Maharashtra, the BJP faces the wily Sharad Pawar, who is in the fray to avenge his party’s split. One-third of the BJP’s total election matches are held in Vidarbha, where three-fourths of the total matches are played.
Shiv Sena (Shinde) is contesting maximum seats in Thane-Konkan (18), followed by Marathwada (16) and Mumbai (15). In the fight for Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy, he is taking on the Shiv Sena (UBT) in Thane and Mumbai. In the 2024 general elections, Eknath Shinde, unlike Ajit Pawar, contested strongly against Uddhav Thackeray. Ajit Pawar’s party had no competition with the NCP led by Sharad Pawar. Of the seats contested by Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, 40 per cent are in the stronghold of the undivided Shiv Sena.
The NCP (AP) is contesting the highest number of seats in Western Maharashtra (25), followed by Marathwada (10) and North Maharashtra (9). He takes on the NCP (SP) in the battle between the “real and fake NCP” in western Maharashtra. In the 2024 general elections, Ajit Pawar faced defeat and out of the four Lok Sabha seats, his party could win only one. It is contesting 40 percent of its seats in the undivided PCN stronghold.
Of the MVA, the Congress is contesting on 101 seats, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) on 95 and the NCP (SP) on 86 seats. Other allies will compete in the elections for 6 seats. It does not have any candidate for the Kolhapur North seat as its candidate withdrew from the race at the last moment. There is a friendly contest between Congress and NCP (SP) and Congress and Shiv Sena (Uddhav) for two seats. The Congress is contesting the maximum number of seats in Vidarbha (40), followed by Western Maharashtra (19) and Marathwada (15).
He hopes to take advantage of the rural and agricultural crisis in Vidarbha and continue his winning streak in the 2024 general elections. In Marathwada, he hopes that Marathas demanding reservations will be attracted by his promise to increase reservations beyond the 50 per cent limit and vote for him. Nearly 40 per cent of the total Congress matches in MPM are held in Vidarbha, where two-thirds of the matches will be played.
Shiv Sena (Uddhav) is contesting maximum seats in Thane-Konkan (24), followed by Mumbai (22). In the fight for Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy, he is pitted against Sena (Shinde) in Thane and Mumbai. In the 2024 general elections, while Uddhav won the Mumbai battle against Shinde, Shinde won Thane-Konkan in a direct fight. Shiv Sena is contesting almost half of its seats in the undivided Shiv Sena bastion of the UBT.
The NCP (Sharad Pawar) is contesting the maximum number of seats in western Maharashtra (38), followed by Marathwada (15) and Vidarbha (13). He takes on the NCP (AP) in Western Maharashtra in the battle between the ‘real and fake NCP’. Sharad Pawar unilaterally won the 2024 general elections. Of the 10 Lok Sabha seats his party contested, it won eight. The Sharad Pawar faction got 74 per cent support from the undivided NCP, while the Ajit Pawar-led NCP got only 26 per cent support. It is contesting 45 per cent of its seats in western Maharashtra, the bastion of the undivided NCP.
Which team is playing against whom?
There are three major battles in Maharashtra: Congress against BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) against Shiv Sena (Uddhav) and NCP (AP) against NCP (SP). There is a head-to-head fight between them for 169 seats, which is about 60 per cent of the strength of the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly. Congress and BJP will face off in 75 seats; These include 35 seats in Vidarbha, 12 in western Maharashtra and 10 in Marathwada.
Ahead of the 2024 general elections, the BJP had the upper hand in the head-to-head fight. However, that perception has changed. Nationally, the Congress strike rate against the BJP rose from eight per cent in 2019 to 29 per cent in 2024. Of the 90 assembly seats they contested in the Maharashtra general elections, the Congress was by ahead with 52 and the BJP with 38. Vidarbha can decide the direction of these elections.
Farmers are king makers in Vidarbha. The MVA has promised farm loan waiver and minimum support price guarantee, while Mahayuti has promised to increase the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi from Rs 12,000 to Rs 15,000 per year along with free electricity.
Both Shiv Sena factions are neck and neck in 53 seats, of which 16 seats are in Thane-Konkan and 11 seats each in Mumbai and Marathwada. Half of these battles take place in the Mumbai metropolitan area. While Thackeray is strong in Mumbai, Shinde is strong in Thane. Shiv Sena trusted leaders like Eknath Shinde and Narayan Rane in Thane-Konkan and now the two form a great alliance. Here, the Congress and the NCP have a limited presence, while the BJP has a good presence, increasing the chances of a grand alliance.
Both factions of the NCP are fighting over 41 seats, of which 20 are in Western Maharashtra alone. There is sympathy in favor of Sharad Pawar, who is playing the “last choice” card. After Ajit’s wife Sunetra’s defeat by Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule in the Lok Sabha elections, another election fight between uncle and nephew is underway in Baramati. Ajit Pawar hopes his MLAs, who have significant influence in the area, will win the local battle.
Who is the weak link in both Mahayuti and MVA?
The results of the Maharashtra elections will also depend on who is the weak link in both the teams. In the 2024 general elections, the great alliance was the PCN (AP). The party strength scanner, based on results from 2009 to 2019, shows that of the 149 seats that the BJP is contesting, 95 are strong/very strong, meaning it has won these seats two or three times in the last few years. last three elections. I have won. Of the 101 seats that the Congress is contesting, 39 are strong/very strong seats.
The proportion of election participants in weak seats shows that it is the lowest for the BJP at 14 per cent and the highest for the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) at 34 per cent. Shiv Sena UBT has not won or contested 32 of the 95 seats it is contesting, not even once in the last three elections. It competes with the BJP for 31 of those seats. Of them, 18 are strong/very strong BJP seats. This factor can also be decisive in the direction of the elections.
At MVA there was a lot of tension regarding seating arrangements. Congress leaders admit that they have given a large number of seats to Uddhav Thackeray. Shiv Sena UBT is contesting on 5 seats which have been strong/very strong seats in Congress and NCP. Will Uddhav prove to be MVA’s ‘weak link’ in the 2024 Maharashtra Premier League (Assembly elections)? Will the Vidarbha camp decide who lifts the trophy? Who will be the man of the show, the BJP or the Congress, or will Sharad Pawar prove to be the real Chanakya?
