Maharashtra assembly elections.
Polling is underway for the Maharashtra Assembly elections. At stake is the fate of 4,136 candidates in the state’s 288 assembly seats, which will be decided by 9.70 million voters. A close contest is being considered between the BJP-led NDA alliance (Mahayuti) and the Congress-led India Alliance (Maha Vikas Aghadi). This time the assembly elections are not just a struggle for power for both alliances but also for their survival and political identity.
A lot has changed in Maharashtra politics in five years. Shiv Sena and NCP have split into two factions and seem to be fighting each other. BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP are part of the grand alliance, while Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (S) are standing in Mahavikas Aghadi.
Which party is running for election and for how many seats?
Of the grand alliance, the BJP is contesting on a maximum of 149 seats, while Shinde’s Shiv Sena is contesting on 81 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP is trying its luck on 59 seats. The BJP has left four seats for small parties, in which Ramdas Athawale’s RPI, Yuva Swabhiman Party, Jan Surajya Shakti Party and RSP have fielded their candidates. Similarly, in Maha Vikas Aghadi, Congress is contesting on 101 assembly seats, Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) is contesting on 86 seats and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) is contesting on 95 seats. Also, BSP-237, VBS-200, AIMIM-17 and SP are contesting for 9 seats.
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There may be a close contest between Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, but no party has won a clear majority in the last six assembly elections. In such a situation, the role of small parties is important, but the Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi alliances are trying to form the government on their own. However, this time the political mood of Maharashtra is not completely the same, in some places Mahayuti has the upper hand and in other places Maha Vikas Aghadi is likely to gain an advantage. This time there seems to be a fight for seats. In such a situation, which factor is working with whom?
What factor is in favor of Maha Vikas Aghadi?
The biggest factor in favor of Maha Vikas Aghadi is the results of the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra held four months ago. Of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state, Maha Vikas Aghadi managed to win 31 seats, while Mahayuti was limited to 17 seats. Congress won 13 seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) 9 and NCP (S) 8 seats. The Congress increased from one seat to 13, Sharad Pawar’s party increased from 3 to 8, while the BJP decreased from 23 seats to 9. Thus, Mahavikas Aghadi was leading in about 160 assembly seats, while Mahayuti was leading with 128 seats. If the voting pattern in the assembly elections remains the same as that of the Lok Sabha, then Maha Vikas Aghadi will be defeated.
sympathy bets
The Shiv Sena and NCP split in Maharashtra is also a factor. Revolting against Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde took power along with the Shiv Sena in his name. Similarly, Ajit Pawar had also snatched the NCP from Sharad Pawar’s hands. Due to this, sympathy arose among people towards Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. This sentiment was clearly visible in the Lok Sabha elections and in the Assembly elections too, Uddhav and Sharad Pawar played the victim card. The bet on sympathy is considered a great electoral asset for Maha Vikas Aghadi.
Muslim and Dalit chemistry
Maha Vikas Aghadi’s political chemistry between Maratha, Muslims and Dalits has been a success in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. On the basis of this social engineering, Maha Vikas Aghadi has once again contested the elections. The issue of reservation and the Maratha Constitution was effective and efforts are being made to repeat it again. Apart from this, Rahul Gandhi kept the issue of caste census and social justice intact throughout the election campaign. In such a situation, the Dalit-Muslim-Maratha alliance can play an important role for Maha Vikas Aghadi.
Sharad Pawar is the uncrowned king of Maharashtra politics, his popularity is all over the state. In this way, Uddhav Thackeray preserves the political legacy of his father Balasaheb Thackeray. Maha Vikas Aghadi does not have any leader of the political stature of Uddhav and Sharad Pawar. Maha Vikas Aghadi can take political advantage of this in elections. The Thackeray and Pawar factors are considered very important in Maharashtra and the Congress has decided to make the most of them.
What factors are important in favor of Mahayuti?
The BJP knows very well that it cannot win the political battle in Maharashtra on its own. In such a situation, the BJP has entered the elections in alliance with Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, known as Mahayuti. In this way, the BJP has entered the elections with a grand alliance, learned a lesson from the defeat in the Lok Sabha and has aggressively promoted populist plans. Efforts have been made to woo women voters through the Ladli Brahmin Yojana. Mahayuti propagated that changing the government could deepen the crisis in all its benefits. Ladli Brahmin Yojana, which provides Rs 1,500 every month to more than 2 million women, is seen as an important factor.
Victory in the Haryana Assembly elections can become a major factor for Mahayuti. Only after this victory did the morale of the BJP and its allies rise. Amit Shah had taken over the electoral leadership of Maharashtra and by holding continuous meetings, he has worked to strengthen the party at the grassroots level and correct the political equation. Mahayuti can benefit from this in the assembly elections.
Special attention to OBC
The BJP has also been making efforts to improve the caste equation that was disturbed in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP has especially focused on its main vote bank, the OBC, and has made all-out efforts to consolidate the caste-divided Hindu votes. CM Yogi set the narrative of ‘Katoge to Batoge’, while PM Modi gave the slogan of ‘If you are united, you are safe’. Not only this, the BJP has been trying hard to ruin the Maha Vikas Aghadi equation through vote jihad. When the Hindutva agenda was set, a decision was taken to get Dalit votes as well. Mahayuti has called claims that the Constitution is in danger unfounded.
In the Maharashtra Assembly elections, Mahayuti has not declared any leader as CM and has not entered the electoral fray. Eknath Shinde is definitely the CM, but Amit Shah made it clear during the elections that the decision on the new CM will be taken after the results are announced. Along with this, the narrative created by the opposition about Devendra Fadnavis becoming CM also ended. There was also a danger of Fadnavis or Shinde suffering losses in the elections. In this way, the CM’s speculations, which may benefit the Mahayutis, were rejected.
