The results of the US elections have created a new history. Donald Trump, who found himself politically and legally caught in a legal whirlwind after leaving the presidency four years ago, won the election, breaking the cloud of all controversies and accusations. Trump’s victory will not only impact politics around the world, but also has special significance for India. These meanings are formulated in view of the friendship with India that was strengthened during the previous Trump regime. After the former post, PM Modi also called Trump and congratulated him.
Both Trump and Modi consider themselves great friends. The Trump administration’s decisions are also favorable for India. It is necessary to consider what impact Trump’s victory will have on the world order and to what extent it will strengthen India-US relations. In fact, there is happiness and hope in India because of Trump’s victory in the United States. Because there are four major pillars of relations between the two countries.
The first is trade. Second is technology. The third is energy and the fourth is defense and strategic relations. The people of both countries are hopeful that the colors of friendship related to these four ties will shine brighter in the coming days and the reason for this is the friendship between Trump and Modi.
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From Howdy Modi in Houston, Texas 5 years ago to Namaste Trump in Ahmedabad during the Corona period of 2020, the world has seen the chemistry of the relationship between Modi and Trump on many occasions.
India’s share in global exports may increase
It remains to be seen how India’s trade relations will change with the arrival of the Trump administration in the United States. But today the United States has become a major export hub for Indians on the basis of the friendship between the two countries that began during the last Trump administration. For example, if we look only at the figures for the year 2023-24, $42.2 billion was imported from the United States to India. While 77.52 billion dollars were exported from India to America.
Previously, the Trump government’s policies have been against the Chinese monopoly, hence it is expected that after Trump’s arrival, the tax on Chinese imports may increase. This can pave the way for increasing India’s share in global exports. If taxes are increased on Chinese products, there will be opportunities to increase exports of textiles, tiles, wires and cables. Hope for opening of the American market will increase for Indian metal exporters. Opportunities may increase for Indian chemical and pharmaceutical exporters.
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China is also an important factor in the India-US friendship. To control China, the United States had prepared a front in the Indo-Pacific. After Trump’s arrival, this Quad front will advance more strongly. Joint maneuvers around Indian maritime space will increase, which can also benefit the purchase and sale of weapons. Opportunities for technology transfer between countries may increase and a strong front against China’s growing intentions may remain.
If Trump comes, what will be the tension for India?
Given the record of the previous Donald Trump regime, many fears remain. There are many internal challenges before him, Trump has made many election promises on issues such as inflation, unemployment, taxes, immigration, etc. And in this, immigration and employment are two such important issues in which Trump’s decisions can go against the rights of India and Indians.
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In fact, with the arrival of Trump, there is the possibility of strict immigration policies. Trump’s policies on H1B visas may be difficult for Indians because they may reduce employment opportunities for Indians in the United States. Anyway, last year 1,100 illegal Indians were deported from America. There is also new tension in the Trump administration over tariffs, because Trump sometimes calls India a tariff king and other times a bully.
In 2019, when India imposed taxes on many American products, Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on Indian products in relation to Harley Davidson motorcycles. Then the United States increased import duties on iron and aluminum and also broke the preferential trade agreement with India. Not only this, even when India bought oil from Iran, the Trump administration threatened sanctions and also threatened sanctions regarding the S-400 deal with Russia.
In such a situation, if India becomes the target of the Trump administration’s tariff policy, then there may be pressure on India to reduce taxes on US exports and if this does not happen, US companies like IT, pharma and textiles may be affected. However, in the changed world order after Covid, the entire world needs a market and maintaining relations with India will be beneficial for all countries.
