The results of the US presidential election are also expected to have an impact on the Indian economy. In reality, this election is not limited only to the United States, but its impact can also have a profound impact on global trade, foreign investment and the monetary situation.
Possible changes in trade and imports and exports The United States is a major trading partner of India. According to the data, there was bilateral trade of $118 billion between the United States and India in 2023-24. Along with American companies, the Indian pharmaceutical and technology industry has also played an important role in this.
Now, if the new government introduces changes in trade policies, this can directly affect many sectors in India. For example, some possible changes could include increasing tax rates on imports and exports. Or export controls on new technology can be imposed.
Over the past decade, trade between the United States and India has seen annual growth of about 6 percent. But after this election, the policy of the new US government will make it clear whether there will be stability or instability in trade policy, which may lead to an increase or decrease in this growth rate.
State of the US dollar and its impact
The value of the US dollar determines the prices of many items in India, including crude oil. India meets about 85 percent of its energy needs through imports, so if the dollar strengthens after the US elections, crude oil will become expensive for India.
This will have a direct impact on India’s inflation rate and the value of the rupee. It is estimated that if the dollar index exceeds 105 or more, the rupee may continue to fall. In such a situation, US fiscal policies will have a direct impact on the stability or instability of the dollar.
Impact on foreign investment and the infrastructure sector
The extent to which the next US president promotes investment in the Indian market may be important for India’s infrastructure sector. If the new US government promotes policies like “Friendshoring” and “China Plus One”, then the Indian manufacturing sector may have new possibilities.
Impact on the technology sector and visa policy
India’s IT sector is a major supplier to the United States. If new rules are created in the US for visa policies or the IT sector, this can have a huge impact on India’s top companies such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro. If the new president changes the rules of the H1B visa policy, Indian professionals may have to face new opportunities or challenges.
The number of Indian technology professionals in the United States has increased by 20 per cent in the last five years. The results of these elections may also bring changes in the demand and income of Indian talent. The effect of the new US economic policies can be seen in the Indian market from 2025. If US interest rates rise, foreign investors could withdraw their money from the Indian stock market, which could make financing more expensive for Indian companies.
