The credibility of veterans is at stake in the UP by-elections.
The by-elections to nine Uttar Pradesh assembly seats on November 20 will neither make the power game better nor worse. The UP by-elections include seats from Purvanchal to Awadh, Brij and Western UP and are therefore considered the semi-final of the assembly elections to be held in 2027. Not only the BJP, the SP and the BSP, but also the parties of Asaduddin Owaisi and Chandrashekhar Azad are trying their luck.
While the SP is trying to maintain the atmosphere won in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections through by-elections, the BJP is trying to settle scores. Mayawati wants to regain her lost political base through by-elections, Owaisi wants to test the litmus test of Muslim votes and Chandrashekhar’s Dalit votes.
Of the 9 seats in UP where elections are held, Kundarki, Ghaziabad, Khair and Mirapur seats are in Western UP, while Karhal seat is in Brij area, while Sisamau and Katehri seats They are located in the Awadh region. Majhwan and Phulpur assembly seats fall in Purvanchal belt. If we look at the 2022 elections, the SP had won four seats, while the BJP had won three seats. Apart from this, RLD and Nishad Party had won one seat each.
The BJP is trying its luck with 8 seats in the by-elections. Its ally RLD is contesting a seat in Meerapur. The BJP has not given any seats to the Nishad Party and is contesting the Majhwan seat it holds. The SP and the BSP have presented their candidates for the 9 seats. Congress supports the PS in the partial elections. Owaisi’s AIMIM is contesting three seats, while Chandrashekhar is contesting three seats.
CM Yogi-Jayant’s credibility is at stake.
CM Yogi’s credibility is at stake in the Uttar Pradesh by-elections. Whether BJP wins or loses the by-elections, the credit for both will go to CM Yogi Adityanath. After the defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP does not want to lose the by-elections under any circumstances. The NDA has fielded five OBC candidates, 2 Brahmins, 1 Dalit and 1 Thakur. The alliance has tried to include all castes of the backward classes. The BJP has given a chance to leaders of Maurya, Brahmin, Kurmi, Nishad, Yadav and Thakur communities in the by-elections. BJP ally Jayant Chaudhary has fielded a candidate from the Pal community.
Although Jayant Choudhary’s test is in the Meerapur assembly seat, the challenge is to transfer the Jat votes in favor of the BJP. In 2022, RLD managed to win the Meerapur seat with the support of SP, but this time RLD has an alliance with BJP. Because of the way Jayant has carried out a political experiment in Meerapur by fielding a candidate from the Pal community instead of Jat and Gurjar, this contest is not an easy one for RLD. RLD chief Jayant Choudhary’s challenge is to prove himself in the Meerapur seat, while in Khair and Kundarki seats the challenge is to convert Jat votes in favor of the BJP.
How important are the SP by-elections?
Most of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s prestige is at stake in the by-elections because 4 of 9 seats were in his possession. The SP has fielded four Muslim candidates, three from OBC and two Dalits, repeating the PDA formula (Backward, Dalit, Minority). The SP did not give ticket to any upper caste community in the UP by-elections. The SP has won the Lok Sabha election battle with this strategy. This is an opportunity for Akhilesh Yadav to perfect the PDA formula and create an environment for 2027.
Akhilesh Yadav has to maintain his dominance in four seats in the by-elections – Karhal, Katehari, Sisamau and Kundarki. In the 2022 elections, the SP had vacated the Meerapur seat for the RLD. In this way, Akhilesh faces the challenge of getting as many seats as possible. While in opposition, the SP lost seats like Rampur and Azamgarh, but managed to win seats in Ghosi and Mainpuri. In this way, by winning the by-elections, Akhilesh will try to change the political environment in his favor and if he loses, the color of victory in 2024 will fade.
Mayawati’s trial by fire
The BSP is weakening day by day in Uttar Pradesh and the party’s graph is falling in election after election. The BSP was limited to one seat in the 2022 assembly elections and failed to open its account in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BSP’s vote share reached 9.39 per cent. Now his main vote bank, Jatav, is also disappearing. This is the reason why the BSP has contested the by-elections after a long time and the party has fielded two Muslim, three Brahmin, one Dalit, one Thakur and two OBC candidates, but Mayawati did not get any seat to campaign. However, the BSP has its own political base in Meerapur, Ghaziabad, Majhwan, Khair, Katehari and Phulpur seats and has been registering victories. In such a situation, the BSP holds elections in the areas of its political influence, so a lot is at stake for the BSP in the by-elections.
Owaisi and Chandrashekhar test
Asaduddin Owaisi has fielded his candidates from Meerapur, Kundarki and Ghaziabad assembly seats. All three seats in the assembly are considered Muslim-dominated. That is why AIMIM has used all its strength. On the last day of the election campaign, Owaisi himself tried his best to attract Muslim votes in his favor by holding a public meeting at the Mirapur headquarters. Not only this, he even mentioned the Muzaffarnagar and Palestine riots. Like Owaisi, Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad’s credibility is also at stake. They have fielded candidates for many seats including Meerapur, Kundarki and Khair. For Chandrashekhar, who became an MP by winning on the back of Muslim votes in Nagina, the challenge is to attract Dalit votes.
What kind of fight in what seat?
Tej Pratap Yadav is contesting from SP, BJP’s Anujesh Yadav and BSP’s Avinash Shakya are contesting from Karhal assembly seat in Mainpuri district. BJP’s Ramveer Singh Thakur is contesting from the Muslim-dominated Kundarki seat of Moradabad, while Haji Rizwan is contesting from the SP. BSP’s Rafatullah alias Chhidda, AIMIM’s Mohammad Waris and ASP’s Haji Chand Babu are trying their luck from this seat. Mithlesh Pal of RLD, Sumbul Rana, daughter-in-law of former MP Kadir Rana of SP, Shahnazar of BSP, Zahid Hussain of Chandrashekhar Azad’s party and Arshad Rana of AIMIM are contesting from the Mirapur seat.
SP’s Naseem Solanki, BJP’s Suresh Awasthi and BSP’s Virendra Shukla are contesting from the Sisamau assembly seat. BJP’s Sanjeev Sharma, SP’s Raj Singh Jatav and BSP’s PN Garg are contesting from the Ghaziabad seat. Well, SP’s Charu Kain, BJP’s Surendra Diler and BSP’s Pahal Singh are contesting the assembly seat. BJP’s Deepak Patel and SP’s Mujtaba Siddiqui are contesting from Phulpur seat, BJP’s Suchismita Maurya, SP’s Jyoti Bind and BSP’s Deepak Tiwari are contesting from Majhwan seat. SP’s Shobhavati Verma, BJP’s Dharamraj Nishad and BSP’s Amit Verma are contesting from the Katehari assembly seat.
