There has been a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah since Wednesday morning. The special thing about this peace according to the UN Security Council resolution is that the ceasefire is only for 60 days. During this period, both sides will try to achieve peace from their respective sides. But can the Middle East become turbulent again as soon as this time is over?
First understand some background.
On October 7 last year, the extremist group Hamas killed thousands of Israeli citizens in an attack and kidnapped more than 250 more. After such actions by this group based in Gaza, Israel also attacked and this spark in the Middle East continued to spread further. This was also joined by the Lebanese extremist group Hezbollah, which supports the ideology of Hamas. The war between Hamas and Israel continues unofficially, but there has been a two-month ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.
The ceasefire is based on United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1701. The UNSC presented this proposal in 2006, whose sole objective is to reduce tension between Hezbollah and Israel. In addition, it also talks about a permanent ceasefire in the buffer zone.
This was the year Hezbollah killed three Israeli soldiers and kidnapped two. Angered by this, Israel occupied southern Lebanon to weaken the extremist group. Let us tell you that the headquarters of Hezbollah is in the southern part. Both have now been asked to leave this location and the Lebanese army, while it remains there, will ensure that the ceasefire is fully implemented.
Why did the ceasefire suddenly happen after almost a year and a quarter?
Signs of this were already being given. In recent days there has been a reduction in attacks between the two. The UN Security Council resolution was also not implemented suddenly, but many large countries were working towards it. In fact, thousands of lives have been lost in Lebanon amid the attacks and displacement has also increased. The world is already struggling with the refugee crisis. In such a situation, the Lebanese displacement would also have an impact on other countries. It is like saying that if the fire in the neighbor’s house is not put out, the house itself can also burn. This is the reason why all of Europe, including the United States, sprang into action.
What will happen in 60 days?
During this time, Hezbollah will withdraw its fighters from the buffer zone between Lebanon and Israel. Furthermore, Israel will also withdraw from the Lebanese border. In place of these two will be the Lebanese army, which will ensure that there are no internal unrest.
What will happen after the period ends?
The ceasefire agreement currently lasts for 60 days. During this time, thousands of people from southern Lebanon and also thousands of people from northern Lebanon will be able to return to their homes. Let us tell you that there are many Israelis in the northern part who are living in hotels because of the fighting. The government is assuming its main expenses, which is creating economic pressure. This will also end when the war ends. However, as the current situation stands, it is not certain whether the ceasefire will last the stipulated period or whether it will not resume after such a long time. Although the mediating countries have called it the basis of permanent peace, looking at the history of the Middle East nothing can be said with certainty.
Why war may come to Syria
Under the ceasefire, all illegal structures in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah fighters live or store weapons will be eliminated. This group continued to receive weapons aid from Iran. All this work is carried out through the Syrian route. Now, amid peace in Lebanon, it is possible that Israel could become aggressive against Syria, so that Hezbollah could be weakened on all fronts.
Although this is not permitted during the ceasefire, Israel can make such a proposal under the terms of the ceasefire. This can be glimpsed in the fact that, in the midst of the ceasefire announcement, Israel attacked the border between Lebanon and Syria for the first time.
Can a ceasefire also occur in Gaza?
Israel has made clear that it will continue attacking until the hostages are unconditionally released. In view of the huge humanitarian crisis in Gaza, many large countries, including Middle Eastern countries, have attempted mediation, but both sides have not shown any flexibility.
