There has been a shift in power in the United States and the leader of the Republican Party, Donald Trump, has once again come to power. Trump will take office in January next year, but there is much discussion about what his domestic and foreign policy will be. Trump won the election at a time when the entire Middle East is at war and the geopolitical equations there are changing rapidly. While on the one hand Israel is fighting Hamas and Hezbollah with the support of the United States, on the other hand there is a situation of attack and counterattack by Iran.
This time there are different challenges for Trump in the Middle East
In Trump’s first term (January 2017-January 2021), the United States gained support from both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) against Iran. During that time, the Trump administration adopted a strategy toward Iran that was called the “Maximum Pressure Campaign.”
This campaign included withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimposing economic sanctions on Iran. Trump had announced his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, which aimed to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment and ban its ballistic missiles. Trump wanted maximum sanctions imposed on Iran so that it could not support its proxies Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah.
The United States did not impose these sanctions only on Iran, but tried to involve its allies, partners and even its opponents so that Iran’s economy was broken and it was isolated from the entire world.
Change in Saudi-Emirati policy towards Iran
The Trump administration achieved some success in this matter, especially by gaining support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Both Middle Eastern powers were interested in weakening the Iranian government at the time.
Due to this, both the neighboring countries, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, came under Iran’s target. Instead of reaching a compromise with Trump, Iran increased pressure on its neighbors and used military force against both, both directly and indirectly.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates suffered huge losses due to the actions of Iran and its proxies. The Houthis, representatives of Iran, carried out major attacks against oil bases in both countries. Concerned about this, both countries finally thought it best to restore peace with Iran.
The United Arab Emirates was the first country to attempt to ease tensions with Iran, reaching a deal to normalize relations in August 2022. Saudi Arabia followed suit and restored relations with Iran in March 2023 in a deal brokered by China. .
After Trump’s election, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have given a big signal on Iran
After the restoration of relations with Iran, both countries attempted to further strengthen relations with Iran. Following Trump’s victory, a joint meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to which Iran’s Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref was also invited. At this conference, countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates not only showed solidarity against Israel but also supported Iran.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had openly supported Iran against Israel at the conference. He had said the international community should hold Israel responsible for “respecting Iran’s sovereignty and not violating its sovereignty.”
Trump’s problems will increase
Even in his second term, Trump has talked about putting maximum pressure on Iran, but this time the Middle East political equations have completely changed. It is quite possible that this time Trump will not get the support of the two great powers of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, against Iran.
In such a situation, it will be very difficult for Trump to put pressure on Iran by imposing maximum sanctions and his agenda of isolating Iran may fail.
