Get ready for Donald Trump’s new “America First” era. The new strategy will require patience and smart policies because anything unexpected can happen. After coming to power for the second time, Trump’s strategy will be even more unstable than before and clearly ‘America first’. This time its focus will be solely on American interests, which may create new pressures and tensions at the global level.
Trump’s inner circle will get stronger
This time Trump will keep around him only loyal people who will not create any obstacles to his policies. He has already planned to take control of the “deep state”, or domestic institutions, which he suspects conspired against him when he was first elected in 2016. This time only those senior officials from the State, Defense and Intelligence departments who believe in following orders instead of advice.
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Trump has prepared a list of hundreds of potential officials among his supporters and associates who will support his “America First” agenda. As soon as the election results became clear, Trump announced his first major appointment, in which his campaign manager, Susie Wills, was chosen as White House chief of staff. Wills, popularly known as ‘Ice Maiden’, is considered the main driving force behind Trump’s political comeback.
Now the competition for important positions in the Trump administration has begun and there is debate over whether Republican leaders or businessmen and outside leaders should be included in Congress. But one thing is certain: everyone needs Donald Trump Jr.’s approval.
Clash between ‘America First’ and ‘Make in India’?
Trump’s stance will be tougher than ever on a range of issues, including cracking down on illegal immigration, higher tariffs on all imports and withholding economic aid to end the war in Ukraine. He has also talked about imposing a travel ban on Muslim-majority countries.
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What does this mean for India? First, it is important to understand that American policymakers do not think about India every morning. Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi maintain friendly relations, but the union of ‘America First’ and ‘Make in India’ may bring some conflict. Both want to increase manufacturing and employment in their respective countries, which in some ways can create competition.
Technological and defense relations between India and the United States
Will Trump promote the recent important technological cooperation between India and the United States as much as Joe Biden? This partnership covers areas such as space, semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing. But Trump may not be as willing to provide advanced technology to India or encourage American companies to invest in India.
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On defense, India-US relations can remain strong. Trump has always shown interest in selling weapons to India. It was his government that gave permission to sell drones to India for the first time. Recently, India purchased 31 MQ-9B drones.
trade and tariffs
Trump plans to impose import tariffs of 60% to 100% on China and 10% to 20% on other countries. He has called India the “tariff king,” which may create difficulties in his trade deal with India. A trade agreement could not be reached before his visit to India either.
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religious freedom
The situation of Christian minorities in India may also attract the attention of the Trump administration, due to the influence of evangelicals among its political allies. These missionaries want to work independently in India, which does not coincide with the BJP’s agenda. Some Republican members of Congress may also raise this issue.
The direction of Trump’s second term will become clear in the future, when his cabinet and priorities are revealed. Until then, it’s best not to wait too long or get disappointed.
(Seema Sirohi is a Washington, DC-based columnist and author of the book Friends with Benefits: The India-US Story, based on the past 30 years of relationships.)
