It was just a few weeks ago. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu appealed to people to have more children. He had said that the fertility rate in the country is 2.1, while in Andhra it is 1.6 and if this continues, by 2047 Andhra will have a large elderly population. He also said that the government will soon pass a new law, according to which only those people who have two or more children will be able to participate in local elections.
After Chandrababu Naidu, Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin also said similar things. He even said that new couples should have 16 children each.
But this is not just about India…
This call to produce more and more children is not limited to India alone. To control the increase in population, China had implemented the “One Child Policy” in the 1980s. Due to this, the population stopped but the elderly population began to increase rapidly. Later the “two children” and then “three children” policy was implemented.
Last year, China launched a new plan to encourage people to get married and have more children.
Currently, various methods are being adopted in many countries of the world to increase the elderly population and reduce the fertility rate. “Sex in the workplace” was recently proposed in Russia. In this framework, people were suggested to have sex and have children during lunch or coffee breaks at the office.
Now the news is that Russia is considering forming a “sex ministry” to boost the declining fertility rate. Nina Ostania, a close aide to President Vladimir Putin, is reviewing the proposal to open a “sex ministry.”
Not only this, in Japan the leader of the Conservative Party, Naoki Hyakuta, has made a strange proposal. He has proposed that girls should be prohibited from marrying after age 25 and that their uteruses should be forcibly removed after age 30. There has been a great stir over his proposal.
After the controversy escalated, Hyakuta apologized. But they argue that if this happens, women will be encouraged to have children early and this will increase the declining fertility rate.
Why the emphasis on population growth?
Five decades ago, Paul Elrich had mentioned the “population explosion” in his book. He had said that one day the population will increase so much that people will starve and the Earth will become a “planet of the dead.” This book of his had worried the world.
But now it is exactly the opposite. Two years ago, Elon Musk had said that in the future, falling birth rates will be a bigger problem than global warming. He advised people to have more children.
Experts believe the falling fertility rate has put governments around the world under strain. Governments are now spending a lot of money to increase the growing elderly population and decrease the fertility rate.
In July of this year a report arrived from the United Nations. In this the population was estimated up to 2100. The report says that compared to 1990, women now have fewer children. It is estimated that in 2080 the human population on Earth will exceed 10 billion and only then will begin to decline.
In March of this year a study was published in the scientific journal Lancet. This study was conducted by the University of Washington. This analyzed the fertility rate of 204 countries from 1950 to 2021. An estimate of 2100 was also made. It was said that we are moving towards a world where the fertility rate will be very low. In this study, it was estimated that by 2050, there will be three-quarters of the countries in the world where the fertility rate will be below average. By the year 2100, 97% of the world’s countries will be like this.
The fertility rate is actually the rate that shows how many children a woman gives birth or can give birth to throughout her life. According to the World Bank, in the 1960s the average fertility rate worldwide was above 5. Currently the average fertility rate in the world is 2.3.
What will happen in India?
India is also not immune to the decline in the fertility rate and the increase in the elderly population. Last year, the United Nations released the ‘India Aging Report 2023’. This report said that in 2050 senior citizens will constitute 20.8% of India’s population. Older people are understood to be those whose age is 60 years or older. This report says that since 2010, the elderly population in India has increased rapidly. Because of this, the proportion of people under 15 years of age in the population is decreasing and that of older people is increasing.
According to the report, as of July 1, 2022, the elderly population in the country was 14.9 crore. At that time the proportion of elderly people in the population was 10.5 percent. But by 2050, the number of senior citizens in India is estimated to be 34.7 crore. If this happens, by that time 20.8 percent of India’s population will be elderly. Whereas, by the end of this century, i.e. by the year 2100, more than 36 per cent of India’s population will be elderly.
In this report it was estimated that India’s population will increase by 18% between 2022 and 2050. While the elderly population is estimated to increase by 134%. At the same time, the population of people over 80 years of age may increase by 279%.
Like in most countries of the world, the fertility rate is also declining in India. A NITI Aayog report states that in the 1950s, each woman in India gave birth to an average of 6 children. In 2000, this fertility rate dropped to 3.4. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) conducted between 2019 and 2021 has revealed that the fertility rate in India has reduced to 2. This means that Indian women now give birth to two children on an average. The fertility rate is expected to reach 1.7 in 2050.
To what extent is this a cause for concern?
A report in the British newspaper The Guardian claims that the fertility rate in Taiwan has reached 0.85, so schools there are being closed. In Japan it is 1.21 and because of this diaper sales have decreased. In Greece it is 1.26 and in many towns no child has been born for years. Because of this, people have to work six days a week. What’s more, the fertility rate in South Korea has reached 0.72 and there is a possibility that by 2100 the population here will be reduced by half.
There are many reasons for the decline in fertility rate. Before, women did not have as much freedom as they do now. Plus, most people now want to have fewer children. Now people focus more on career planning than family planning. In addition to this, the use of contraceptives such as pills or condoms has also increased.
Governments are adopting various methods to increase the fertility rate. China’s “one-child policy” has now changed to the “three-child policy.” People are being attracted with incentives, bonuses and facilities to have more children. In Japan, subsidies, daycare and job security are provided. The South Korean government has spent more than $200 billion to help families with children. But all these tricks don’t work. The fertility rate continues to decline.
A study published in The Lancet shows that in the future there will only be six countries in the world where the fertility rate will be 2.1 or higher. Includes Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad and Tajikistan. These are all African countries. Still, African countries have the highest fertility rates in the world.
According to the study, by 2021, 1 in 4 children in the world would be born in an African country. In the year 2100, one in two children will be African.
However, among all the methods to increase the population, the idea of ’Population Exchange’ is also being considered. In this, if the population does not increase in any country, then people from other countries will settle and children will be born.
