SP’s bike was speeding at Karhal.
The fate of candidates contesting the by-elections to nine Uttar Pradesh assembly seats has been sealed in the EVMs. The 13 percent decline in voting from the last election has complicated the political math. Political parties can claim their respective victories, but no one is completely sure. Even after the BJP wave in the 2022 elections, the SP managed to win four seats and in 2024 it won six seats. In the by-elections held after five months, the SP cycle ran at full speed in the Karhal seat, but its speed seems to slow down in the Muslim-dominated seats.
Among the 9 seats in UP where by-elections have been held are Sisamau, Khair, Kundarki, Meerapur, Karhal, Ghaziabad, Katehari, Phulpur and Majhwan seats. In 2022, the SP won four seats, the BJP won three, the RLD won one seat and the Nishad Party won one seat. In the by-elections, the BJP contested 8 seats, while the RLD fielded a candidate for one seat. SP and BSP have tried their luck in all 9 seats, while Asaduddin Owaisi and Chandrashekhar Azad have also fielded their candidates. Even after this, direct competition has been seen between the SP and BJP alliance.
The political equation of the SP seems to be out of control
The SP managed to win Yadav and Muslim dominated seats in the 2022 elections. The SP also managed to win 37 seats in the Lok Sabha elections through the PDA ticket. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had gone for this formula in the by-elections, but due to the BSP’s silence and the BJP’s return to an aggressive Hindutva agenda, the SP’s political equation seems to be disturbed. Because of this, there is a danger that the SP will lose many of its seats.
Their indications were clearly visible in the exit polls relating to the by-elections. Exit polls predict 2-7 and 3-6. The SP appears to win 2-3 seats, while the BJP alliance is expected to win 6-7 seats. If the exit poll projections translate into 23 results, then it is clear that the BJP will manage to defeat the SP on the seats won.
Yadav voters were seen mobilized in favor of the SP.
The Karhal assembly seat is considered Yadav-dominated and has been a traditional seat of the SP. By-elections were held due to Akhilesh Yadav’s resignation, from here Tej Pratap Yadav came to try his luck. The BJP had fielded Anujesh Yadav against Tej Pratap, brother-in-law of SP MP Dharmendra Yadav. In Karhal, 54.1 percent voted.
Voters from the Yadav community have come out in large numbers from their homes to reach the booth and are believed to be seen rallying in favor of the SP. For this reason, all exit polls predict SP’s victory in the Karhal seat. The SP lost this seat only once and then absorbed the winning MLA. That is why there is hope that things will go in favor of the SP.
Brake imposed on Muslim-dominated seats?
RLD had won a Meerapur assembly seat in 2022 with the support of the SP, but contested the by-election with the support of the BJP. The contest seemed to be tightening between RLD’s Mithlesh Pal, SP’s Sumbul Rana, while BSP’s Shah Nazar was seen fighting for the third and fourth position between ASP and AIMIM. In the town dominated by OBC and Jat votes, there was a trend in favor of the RLG candidate.
In the Muslim-dominated villages of Kakrauli, Sikri, Meerapur, Jatwada and Jauli, Muslim voters were seen divided between SP, BSP and ASP in the morning. After the stoning in Kakrauli, the Muslim community was definitely mobilized in favor of the SP, but the rigor of the administration slowed down the pace of their voting. This can definitely slow down SP’s speed. The SP did not seem to be successful in creating a Dalit-Muslim formula here.
Did the dispersion of votes ruin the SP’s mathematics?
The Kundarki seat has 62 per cent Muslim voters and the SP has never lost that seat since 2007. There was a direct contest between the BJP and the SP for the Kundarki seat, but the spread of Muslim votes has ruined the calculations of the SP. BJP candidate Ramveer Singh seemed to manage to break into the SP’s traditional vote bank. While voters were seen choosing the BJP in Muslim areas, in many places the Muslim community was also seen divided between the BSP, AIMIM and AAP candidates. This seat is believed to be lost from the SP account as SP candidate Haji Rizwan is demanding re-election.
The SP has occupied the Sisamau assembly seat for two decades. This Muslim-dominated seat fell vacant due to the conviction of former SP MLA Irfan Solanki and the party had nominated his wife Naseem Solanki as its candidate. The BJP has chosen Suresh Awasthi as its candidate, who has been losing in the last three elections. Since the morning there has been a protest in Sisamau over the barrier installed by the police. Angry over blocking the road to the grave in Gwaltoli area by putting up barricades around it, people created a ruckus accusing the police of preventing voters from voting. Similar cases have come to light in many places, making SP’s path difficult.
Is the PDA formula weakened in the by-elections?
12 candidates are trying their luck in the Phulpur Assembly by-elections, but the main contest was between BJP and SP. In some areas, the SP appeared to be dominant and in others, the BJP was seen gaining momentum. The result will be decided in favor of who the Dalit voters voted for. The SP had fielded a Muslim candidate for this seat, but the PDA’s 2024 ticket does not appear united. The votes of Maurya and the Dalit community that came with the SP could not be mobilized in the by-elections, while the BJP had strengthened its scattered equation with the strategy.
There were reports of fake voting in many places in Karhal. There were many complaints that Muslim voters had been detained. The police took many officers from the booth and destroyed their bags. Akhilesh Yadav said that the BJP wants to remain in government by suppressing democracy and the Constitution, while in a democracy the government is based on public opinion. The BJP is adept at sabotaging free and fair elections. Similarly, the kind of incidents that have come to light on the benches go against the democratic process. The BJP is trying to win elections by strangling democracy with the help of a gun. He alleged that the administration was working in favor of a particular political party. In the Katehari assembly seat, the lockdown and strictness of the administration in Muslim-dominated areas may slow down the speed of the SP.
