CM Yogi, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav
All eyes are on the Karhal assembly by-elections in Mainpuri district of Uttar Pradesh. There is a contest between two political leaders from the Mulayam family for the Karhal seat that fell vacant due to the resignation of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav. Tej Pratap Yadav has entered the election fray from SP, grandson of Mulayam Singh Yadav and son-in-law of former Bihar CM Lalu Yadav. Anujesh Pratap Yadav is contesting for BJP, son-in-law of Mulayam Singh Yadav and brother-in-law of SP MP Dharmendra Yadav. In such a situation, although the Karhal seat seems to be settled, the political equations here are equally complicated.
SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had contested the assembly elections for the first time in the year 2022 from Karhal seat and was elected MLA after registering victory. After becoming MP from Kannauj in 2024, he resigned from the Karhal assembly seat. Thus, Akhilesh has resigned from the Lok Sabha seat thrice and once from the Assembly seat in his political history. In such a situation, the results of the by-elections held in the seats where Akhilesh Yadav resigned were against the SP, while the results were favorable for the opposition parties. Due to the history of by-elections, Tej Pratap Yadav’s political tension seems to be rising in the Karhal seat.
Political entries start from Kannauj
Akhilesh Yadav started his political career 25 years ago. Mulayam Singh Yadav had contested the 1999 Lok Sabha elections from two parliamentary seats, Sambhal and Kannauj. He managed to win in both seats, after which he bagged the Sambhal seat and vacated the Kannauj seat. Akhilesh Yadav started his political innings from the vacant Kannauj Lok Sabha seat due to the resignation of Mulayam Singh. In 2000, Akhilesh Yadav made it to the country’s Parliament for the first time by winning the Kannauj Lok Sabha by-election and in 2004 he became the MP from Kannauj for the second time.
Defeat in Firozabad by-election
In the year 2009, Akhilesh Yadav had contested the elections from two Lok Sabha seats, Kannauj and Firozabad and managed to win both the seats. After this he left the seat of Firozabad. He had made his wife Dimple Yadav contest the byelection from the vacant Firozabad seat due to Akhilesh’s resignation. Dimple Yadav had made her political debut from the Firozabad seat, but the Congress had turned Raj Babbar against her. The Mulayam family, including SP and Akhilesh Yadav, had put all their strength into making Dipal Yadav win, but even then he could not win. Congress candidate Raj Babbar got 3,12,728 votes, while SP’s Dimple Yadav had to settle for 2,27,385 votes. Raj Babbar defeated Dimple by 85,343 votes.
Dimple Yadav was elected unopposed
Akhilesh Yadav had resigned from his Kannauj Lok Sabha seat after becoming UP Chief Minister in 2012. After this, by-elections were held in the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat, Dimple Yadav was fielded from SP. Mulayam Singh was very afraid that Dimple would lose the by-election. In such a situation, SP did the best he could. The SP knew that the BSP is not participating in the by-elections. In such a situation, there was no threat to Mulayam from that side, but a small party and independent candidates were in the fray. BJP’s Subrata Pathak got a ticket in the by-elections. BJP candidate Subrata Pathak was unable to file his nomination and nominations of independent candidates were withdrawn. In this way, a voting situation could not be created in Kannauj and Dimple Yadav was elected unopposed.
Defeat in Azamgarh by-election
Akhilesh Yadav resigned for the third time from the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat after the 2022 assembly elections. In 2019, Akhilesh was elected MP from the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat, but after becoming MLA from Karhal in 2022, he resigned from his position as member from Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat. After this, Dharmendra Yadav contested the Azamgarh by-election on SP ticket and BJP’s Dinesh Lal Nirahua was trying his luck. SP had given all his strength to Dharmendra Yadav. Even after this, the SP could not win. BJP’s Nirahua got 3,12,768 votes, while Dharmendra Yadav got 3,04,089 votes. The BJP had defeated the SP in the by-elections by 8,679 votes.
Tej Pratap Yadav’s tension is rising
After SP chief Akhilesh Yadav quit the seat thrice, the SP has been able to win only once and has had to face two defeats. The SP was victorious in the year 2012 when Akhilesh Yadav was the Chief Minister of UP and the BJP candidate could not file the nomination. When the SP was not in power, when Akhilesh left the seat, the candidate who contested the by-election as his political heir had to lose. SP’s losing trend in the by-elections clearly increases the tension for Tej Pratap Yadav, but Karhal’s political equations are seen in his favour.
Direct contest between BJP and SP
The Karhal assembly seat is considered dominated by Yadav. Both BJP and SP have fielded candidates from the Yadav community, while BSP has made the contest interesting by betting on Avinash Shakya. The SP is out of power in UP and the BJP has played the political trick of 2002 to win the Karhal seat. The BJP won the Karhal seat only once, when it fielded a candidate from the Yadav community. Now I tried the same formula again. Anujesh Yadav has been lined up against Tej Pratap. In this way, Karhal’s struggle remains a topic of discussion.
Political equation of Karhal seat
If we look at the caste equation of Karhal seat, the maximum number of Yadav voters is there, followed by Shakya, Baghel and Thakur voters. The Yadav community has around 1.25 lakh votes, the Dalit community has 40 thousand votes and the Shakya community has 38 thousand votes. Pal and Thakur communities have 30,000 voters each and Muslim voters are 20,000. The voters of the Brahmin-Lodh-Vaishya community are around 15,000 to 15,000. To break Akhilesh’s stronghold in the by-elections, the BJP not only fielded a Yadav candidate but also went for the family’s son-in-law Mulayam.
If there is scattering of Yadav votes in Karhal seat, then it will be difficult for SP to win in Karhal. While the SP wants to maintain its dominance by winning with the help of PDA’s equation with Yadavs and Muslims, the BJP is looking to bag Shakya and Yadav votes along with upper caste voters. In such a situation, the competition for Karhal is considered very tough.
