The by-elections being held in nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh have become a cause of concern for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition Samajwadi Party (SP). While the BJP has deployed an army of ministers, MLAs and MPs in the by-election seats, the SP has also deployed its full force. The fight between the ruling party and the main opposition party has become triangular with the entry of the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The question is, in which seat can the social engineering of the BSP, which often refrains from fielding candidates in by-elections, ruin the whose game this time and where are the caste equations?
Whose game will the BSP ruin and in which seat?
While distributing tickets for nine seats in the by-elections, Mayawati’s party has insisted on fielding candidates from different castes and sects instead of favoring a single caste or community. This also considers the equations for each seat. What is the caste equation of which seat and to whom can the BSP harm?
Kundarki
Talking about the Kundarki assembly headquarters of Moradabad district, it is a Muslim dominated seat. More than half, around 60 per cent, of the population of Kundarki assembly constituency is Muslim. There are a total of 3 lakh 95 thousand 375 voters in Kundarki assembly constituency. Of them, the number of Hindu voters is 1 lakh 56 thousand. Dalits also constitute a large number among Hindu voters. The number of Muslim voters is 2 lakh 39 thousand 375, of which general Muslim voters are 1 lakh 15 thousand and backward classes (Muslim) voters are 1 lakh 24 thousand 375.
BJP has given ticket to Ramveer Singh Thakur from this seat which has around 40 per cent Hindu population. According to estimates, the population of the Thakur community from which Ramveer hails is between 30,000 and 35,000 people in Kundarki. Haji Rizwan is in the SP fray, while the BSP has fielded Rafatullah alias Neta Chhidda in the by-elections. Rafatullah comes from the Turkish community, which is the most influential Muslim community in this assembly constituency. Talking about the 2022 assembly elections, SP MLA Zia Ur Rehman was also from the Turkish community.
While the SP is confident of securing victory with the help of distinctly Muslim votes and some Dalit votes, the BJP is also hopeful of the lotus blooming in Kundarki with the help of distinctly Hindu votes and some Turkish votes. BSP also has its own mathematics. Mayawati’s party is trying to create an equation between Turkish and Dalit votes. If Mayawati’s party fights hard in Kundarki and manages to make a dent in the Dalit-Turkish votes, the SP may suffer losses.
Ghaziabad
From Ghaziabad assembly seat, BJP has fielded Brahmin Sanjeev Sharma, BSP has fielded PN Garg as Vaishya and SP has fielded Dalit Singh Raj Jatav. Talking about the caste equations of this assembly seat, there are around 25 per cent Dalit Muslim voters in this urban seat. Out of a total of 4 lakh 61 thousand 360 voters, around 80 thousand are Dalit voters and 35 thousand are Muslim voters. The BSP has fielded a candidate from the Vaishya community who is considered a traditional BJP voter. If the BSP manages to break into Vaishya’s vote bank, it can cause damage to the BJP.
good (sure)
Well, the assembly seat is reserved for the scheduled castes. There is a contest for this seat between BJP’s Surendra Diler, SP’s Dr Charu Kane, BSP’s Dr Pahal Singh and Azad Samaj Party’s Nitin Kumar Chhotel. If we talk about the caste equations of this seat, there is a maximum number of Jats here. The number of Jat voters is more than one lakh 11 thousand. There are around 50,000 Dalits, around 50,000 upper castes and over 30,000 Dalit voters in Khair. Voters from Vaishya and OBC categories are also present in impressive numbers. Jat and upper caste voters play a decisive role in deciding the outcome of this seat.
Karhal
The Karhal assembly seat, which fell vacant due to the resignation of Akhilesh Yadav, has been a stronghold of the SP. From Karhal seat, SP fielded Tej Pratap Yadav, BJP fielded Anujesh Yadav and BSP fielded Dr Avnish Shakya. Talking about caste equations, in Karhal there are about 30 percent Yadavs, 15 percent Shakyas, 14 percent Dalits, nine percent Thakurs, six percent Brahmins, three percent Lodhis, five percent Muslims and 18 percent other voters. Both BJP and SP have banked on Yadav’s faces. In such a situation, if Shakyas and Dalits come together, the BSP can spoil the game for both sides.
Phulpur
BJP has given ticket to Deepak Patel, SP to Mustafa Siddiqui and BSP to Jitendra Singh from Phulpur assembly seat in Prayagraj district. The BJP has fielded a candidate from the Patel community, which has the largest population after Dalit voters, while the BSP has played the upper caste card. The SP has fielded a Muslim candidate for this seat.
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Talking about caste equations, there are a total of around four lakh voters in Phulpur, of which maximum are 75 thousand Dalits, 70 thousand Patels, 60 thousand Yadavs, 50 thousand Muslims, 45 thousand Brahmins, 22 thousand Nishads and 15 thousand rajput. voters. Upper castes are considered BJP voters. In such a situation, the BSP’s advance card may hurt the ruling party.
Katehari
In Ambedkarnagar district’s Katehari assembly seat, all three major parties, BJP, SP and BSP, have gone for OBC candidates. Dharamraj Nishad is in the fray on BJP’s ticket, SP’s Shobhavati Verma and BSP’s Amit Verma. The BSP has also fielded a candidate from the same caste as the SP. In such a situation, SP is considered to have a higher risk of loss on this entry than BSP.
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Talking about Katehari caste equations, there are around four lakh voters here, of which around one lakh are Dalits. Around 50,000 Brahmins, 30,000 Rajputs, 45,000 Kurmis, 40,000 Muslims and 30,000 Nishad voters are found in the Katehari assembly constituency. Around 22,000 Yadav and 20,000 Rajbhar voters also play a decisive role in deciding the outcome of this seat. The candidates of the SP and BSP parties come from the Kurmi caste.
the one in the middle
From the Majhwan assembly seat in Mirzapur district, the BJP fielded former MP Suchismita Maurya, the SP fielded Jyoti Bind and the BSP fielded Deepak Tiwari. Brahmins are considered BJP voters and the BSP has given tickets to this community for this seat. In such a situation, if the BSP is able to make a dent in the Brahmin vote bank, it can hurt the BJP.
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Talking about the caste equations of this seat, the number of Dalit, Brahmin and Bind voters in this assembly constituency are almost equal. Some 30,000 Kushwahas, 22,000 to 22,000 pastoralists and Muslims, 20,000 Rajputs and 16,000 Patels also play a decisive role in deciding the outcome of Majhwan.
sisamau
The BJP and the BSP have fielded Brahmin candidates from Sisamau seat in Kanpur, while the SP has played the Muslim card. The SP has given entry to Irfan Solanki’s wife Naseem Solanki, the BJP to Suresh Awasthi and the BSP to Virendra Shukla. If the BSP manages to make a dent in the Brahmin vote bank, it will only increase the BJP’s tension. Speaking of caste equations, according to estimates, there are around 40 percent Muslim voters in Sisamau. Along with Brahmins and Dalits, Kayastha voters and other backward classes also play a decisive role in the Sisamau seat.
Mirapur
BJP ally Rashtriya Lok Dal has fielded a candidate from Meerapur assembly seat in Muslim-dominated Muzaffarnagar district. RLD has chosen Mithilesh Pal as its candidate. While SP has fielded Sumbul Rana and BSP has fielded Shahnazar. The BSP’s Muslim card may hurt the SP. If we talk about the caste equations of this seat, the number of voters from both the Muslim and OBC categories is almost equal. According to estimates, there are around 38 per cent OBC voters, 37 per cent Muslims and 19 per cent Dalits in Meerapur assembly constituency.
